Yea, Football Line Moves and Free Picks for August 11


With so many day games in baseball and the night time action not doing much, we will focus our full attention to the line moves in the NFL for Thursday. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (179-138, 56.4% of late, including 29-16 run) to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.

NFLX – (253) TAMPA BAY at (254) PHILADELPHIA  7:00 ET  Local Networks		Among handicappers and sharp players, Philadelphia is a very popular choice. The rationale is Sam Bradford is mostly set as the quarterback for the Eagles and rookie Carson Wentz wants to move into second position ahead of Chase Daniels for the backup and work his way possibly to be starter later in the season. Tampa Bay is set with Jameis Winston, but Mike Glennon thinks he deserves another shot as starting QB and will want to make big impression, maybe for somewhere else down the line. The Eagles flying from -3 to -4 sounds hefty, but my Game Estimator still has Philly covering 86 percent of the time in 500 simulations.

Betting Trend – 60% backing Philadelphia

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Philadelphia

NFLX – (255) JACKSONVILLE at (256) N.Y. JETS  7:30 ET Local Networks

The Jets went from -1.5 to -2.5 almost the minute of release of this contest from the sportsbooks over Jacksonville. I am more of the opinion the Jaguars have more to play for before the season starts as coach Bradley needs to set a winning tone and finish at least .500 this season or he will be looking for assistant job in 2017. Though in just his second year, coach Todd Bowles can bring his troops along with more veteran crew seeking the playoffs. With the total at 36 or 36.5, the Jags are 10-2 ATS away when the total is between 35.5 and 38 points.

Betting Trend – 57% backing Jacksonville

Doug’s VPID Take – Jacksonville covers

NFLX – (257) CAROLINA at (258) BALTIMORE  7:30 ET  Local Networks

This conflict opened as a Pick and with John Harbaugh 7-1 ATS in Week 1 of preseason, Baltimore jumped to -1. For a time earlier in the week the Ravens were even as -2, yet as word came out Baltimore has been bitten hard by the injury bug, those betting football have aligned with Super Bowl participant Carolina and as of this morning the Panthers are now at -1. Hard to ignore Harbaugh’s early preseason success, since he clearly likes to have his team’s play hard right away, but Carolina has better squad and is 6-0 ATS in road games when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points.

Betting Trend – 57% backing Carolina

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Baltimore

NFLX – (259) NEW ORLEANS at (260) NEW ENGLAND  7:30 ET  NFLN

New England has slide from -4 to -3 at home against New Orleans, who was 0-4 SU and ATS last year in the preseason and went on to second straight 7-9 campaign. The Saints run as Super Bowl contender is over, but Sean Payton until last year has been money in the bank as an August road coach. Granted, he often had better teams than this group, but is still 15-5 ATS away from home and make New Orleans an away underdog, they improve to 12-3 ATS under Payton.

Betting Trend – 54% backing New England

Doug’s VPID Take – New Orleans covers


Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 151-141-1

Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 128-108-1

Line Movement Direction Record – 274-255-2


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