It is Friday and time to look over the weekend’s line moves along with series betting in baseball. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (99-60, 62.6% of late), to see what we are thinking. See you back here next week.
NBA – (735) CLEVELAND at (736) TORONTO 7:00 ET ESPN (side and total)
Cleveland opened as a 1.5-point road favorite and they have zoomed at the way to -4.5, as handicapper Tony George at VPID accurately predicted. Along with this the total has been dwindling, down from 214.5 to 213. The perception is the Cavaliers have found their groove in winning six straight playoff games (3-2-1 ATS). In addition, Cleveland is dominating behind the arc with 17 more made three’s so far (that’s 51 points) and the Cavs have been far more aggressive also going to the basket with more made free throws than Toronto has attempted (49 vs. 39) in the series. Kyle Lowry’s ankle is also something you have to consider, but I expect a huge effort from the Raptors and like the value at +4.5 and the only way Toronto keeps it close is with lower score.
Betting Trend – 82% backing Cleveland and 57% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Toronto and Under
NHL – Saturday – (61) PITTSBURGH at (62) WASHINGTON 7:15 ET NBC
With Pittsburgh having won Game 4 without their captain Sidney Crosby to take a 3-1 edge in the series, the Penguins have plummeted from +175 to +145 road underdogs. This entire playoffs, except for spurts of time, Washington has again been on autopilot and Pittsburgh has out-worked and outfought the Capitals. With coach Barry Trotz calling out his top players publicly after Game 4, I expect a full effort from the Caps who move to 13-3 when playing with two days rest this season.
Betting Trend – 85% backing Pittsburgh
Doug’s VPID Take – Washington wins
MLB – N.Y. YANKEES (+120) at CHIC. CUBS (-160) (Series Betting)
In normal times it is the Yankees who are receiving too much attention from baseball bettors, but these are not normal times with the Cubs as defending World Series champions. Based on the pitching matchups, Chicago will likely be favored in each contest, however, New York is averaging 5.7 RPG and the Cubs starting staff after being No.1 in ERA last year sits at 24th currently. Like the Yanks in this spot.
Betting Trend – 60% backing New York
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean New York
MLB – ARIZONA (+105) at COLORADO (-125) (Series Betting)
For a second straight weekend, the two best teams, at least record-wise, will be going at it in the NL West. Colorado won last week’s series, but they will be a Game 1 underdogs to Zack Greinke. Game 2 looks like a tossup with Patrick Corbin and Tyler Anderson and I have to say the series finale could go the D-Backs way since the Rockies Tyler Chatwood pitches much better on the road than at Coors Field. The Snakes have won 11 of 18 at Coors and win this series.
Betting Trend – 83% backing Colorado
Doug’s VPID Take – Arizona wins
MLB – HOUSTON (-165) at L.A.A. ANGELS (+135) (Series Betting)
By the standings, these are the two best teams in the AL West, yet as the series pricing shows, there is cavernous difference between the clubs. There is a 49-run differential between these squads, with Houston playing very good baseball. The Astros should be favored in the initial two contests with Los Angeles possibly a small fave in Game 3. Have to give credit to the Angels spunkiness since they already have 10 come from behind wins among their 15, nevertheless, this is a tall order.
Betting Trend – 50-50 Split
Doug’s VPID Take – Houston wins
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 104-112-4 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 51-57-1 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 147-166-5 ATS