It is all about baseball for line moves this holiday weekend and we have money line, totals and series wagering to cover. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (132-84, 61.1% of late), to see what we are thinking. See you back here next week and have a great Memorial Day weekend.
MLB – (915) TEXAS at (916) TORONTO 7:07 ET FSSW, RSN
We usually do not cover line moves that involve injured players, but we are making an exception here. One would have to surmise the sportsbooks knew third baseman Josh Donaldson and shortstop Troy Tulowitzki were ready to return when they posted -125 money line on Toronto, however, that news has baseball bettors giddy about the Blue Jays who have been beefed up to -150. Toronto will start Mike Bolsinger (0-2, 6.32 ERA) after a winning road trip and Texas turns to A.J. Griffin (4-1, 5.02), having lost four of five after 10-game winning streak. I will lean with Griffin and the Rangers who are 16-4 after dark and 7-0 after three or more straight setbacks.
Betting Trend – 92% backing Toronto
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Texas
MLB – (917) OAKLAND at (918) N.Y. YANKEES 7:05 ET CSCA, WPIX
The total on this AL action is rising like the heat on outspoken (that’s one way to put it) LeVar Ball, going from 9 to 9.5. Why this is occurring is it starts with New York averaging 6.0 RPG at Yankee Stadium and Oakland surrendering 5.1 in road adventures. Next comes Masahiro Tanaka (5-3, 6.56) having an ERA of 10.56 this month and A’s starter Kendall Gravemen (2-2, 3.83) having an ERA of almost 5 (4.97) since coming off the DL in April 27th. With these two 1 & 2 in home runs going against these cold hurlers, the line movement looks accurate.
Betting Trend – 73% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
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MLB – CHIC. CUBS (+135) at L.A. DODGERS (-160) (Series Betting)
Without a doubt a much anticipated series this weekend, with these teams having met in the playoffs last year. The Dodgers will be favored in each game it seems, though the pitching matchups are very close based on current form, with Arrieta vs. Wood, Lackey vs. McCarthy and Lester vs. Kershaw. The Cubs offense is starting to churn and they might sneak this one out, yet hard to go against Los Angeles at 18-8 at home.
Betting Trend – 75% backing Chicago
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean L.A. Dodgers
MLB – ST. LOUIS (+105) at COLORADO (-125) (Series Betting)
Similar to the series listed above, the starting pitching matchups could hardly be tighter. One difference is Colorado will not be the favorite in each contest and while they have talented young pitchers, they have not thrown in what would be considered many meaningful series, though it is only May. The Cardinals deplorable defense is a big concern, nonetheless, I will lean with the Redbirds experience to pull them through.
Betting Trend – 67% backing St. Louis
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean St. Louis
MLB – TAMPA BAY (-115) at MINNESOTA (-105) (Series Betting)
Minnesota is in first place, playing at home and has the slightly better offense, yet is the underdog to a .500 Tampa Bay crew. Why, mostly because the Rays seem to have the starting pitching edges. Though the Twins starters are a very respectable 6th in ERA in the AL, the Rays are No.1 at 3.62. One advantage for Minnesota is they could come from behind against Tampa Bay, since they have the second-most blown saves in the AL. The concern is the Twinkies are just 11-13 at Target Field and unless they hit, they could struggle. That aside, I will play a hunch win Minnesota.
Betting Trend – 75% backing Minnesota
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Minnesota
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 119-123-8 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 68-67-3 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 183-179-11 ATS