Thus far, nothing to speak about when it comes to line moves in the NBA Playoffs or Stanley Cup Playoffs. Instead, we will focus on a couple line moves in baseball and series wagering for the weekend. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (120-76, 61.2% of late), to see what we are thinking. See you back here next week.
MLB – (953) PHILADELPHIA at (954) PITTSBURGH 8:00 ET CSP, RTPT
If you read this on a regular basis, you know when the Phillies Jeremy Hellickson (4-1, 3.71 ERA) was near perfect in April (4-0, 1.80), I said don’t get excited, he will come back to normal and he has with his ERA up nearly two in three May starts. Hellickson will face Trevor Williams (2-2, 6.41), who is taking Jameson Taillon rotation spot while he recovers from surgery for testicular cancer. With this, the total has gone from 8.5 to 9 and I will back that up with the Pirates 11-2 OVER in home games vs. a starting pitcher who gives up one or more home runs a start.
Betting Trend – 93% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
MLB – (973) CLEVELAND at (974) HOUSTON 8:10 ET STO, RTSW
When you look at Trevor Bauer’s (3-4) ERA of 6.92, you are flabbergasted the total in this contest would sink from 9 to 8.5. But here is the deal; Bauer is 6-0 with a 2.61 ERA in six starts against Houston. The Astros Charlie Morton (5-2, 3.97) is healthy and really throwing well and if either starting pitchers gets in any trouble, both managers can call on bullpens that are in the Top 5 in the AL.
Betting Trend – 57% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
MLB – TORONTO (+125) at BALTIMORE (-145) (Series Betting)
Both teams have not been good lately and one will have a chance to step forward and get back on winning track. The Aaron Sanchez and Chris Tillman matchup is an intriguing opener, with a small advantage to Baltimore. The same is true in Game 2 with Kevin Gausman for the Orioles, though he is hardly reliable. Marco Estrada takes the ball for Toronto in the series wrap up and he should contain the Birds bats.
Betting Trend – 95% backing Baltimore
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Baltimore
MLB – TEXAS (+125) at DETROIT (-135) (Series Betting)
The Lone Star State is white hot about baseball with Houston and the Texas Rangers, the latter, winners of nine in a row. The Rangers are series underdogs because they are on the road, but I will say they have a chance even if they are 6-12 away from home. Detroit will be favored in the first two contests thanks with edges in starting pitching, just not as much in my opinion as some might think. Yu Darvish pitches the Sunday night contest which should favor the Rangers. Bottom line, I will take a flyer on Texas, knowing full well both these mediocre bullpens will play a huge role on the outcome.
Betting Trend – 55% backing Detroit
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Texas
MLB – CLEVELAND (+120) at HOUSTON (-140) (Series Betting)
On paper, this is the best series of the weekend, but only if Cleveland plays to their talent level. Houston is the best team is baseball thus far and its starting pitchers have the No.2 ERA in the AL. In this series, the Astros will have the back of the rotation throwing, which gives the Indians a chance. It could well come down to the Tribe’s Danny Salazar on Sunday and if he pitches to his expected ability. (Not counting on it.)
Betting Trend – 66% backing Houston
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Houston
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 114-120-8 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 61-62-2 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 167-177-8 ATS