For the weekend, we have baseball line moves and series betting and Game 1 in the Stanley Cup West Finals total movement. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (110-66, 62% of late), to see what we are thinking. See you back here next week and Happy Mother’s Day to your mom!
NHL – (3) NASHVILLE at (4) ANAHEIM 9:00 ET NBCSN
With Nashville only permitting 1.4 goals a game in the postseason and Anaheim known as a more conservative defensive-minded club, the total has come down from 5.5 to 5, which is pretty rare. Not that three games makes a difference, however, during the regular season these teams were 2-0-1 OVER. These clubs met in the first round a year ago in the playoffs and the UNDER was 3-1-3 and every contest landed on total of 5. I am actually of the opinion this is the right number and have a small lean to the Under, with the Ducks 13-3 UNDER at home having won three of their last four games this season.
Betting Trend – 66% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
MLB – (915) HOUSTON at (916) N.Y. YANKEES 7:05 ET RTSW, YES (side and total)
Houston won the series opener and there are those who think they might get off to 2-0 start in the Bronx. The Astros opened as the slightest of underdogs at -104 and have been taken to -120 favorites versus the Yankees. Lance McCullers Jr. (2-1, 3.40 ERA) is a more proven commodity than rookie Jordan Montgomery (2-1, 3.81), despite the fact he is a year younger. I look for New York to bounce back with McCullers and Houston 5-14 on the road of late. Also, the total has come down from 8.5 to 8 and I cannot overlook the Yanks are 12-3 OVER when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
Betting Trend – 59% backing New York and 91% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – New York wins and Over
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MLB – N.Y. METS (-120) at MILWAUKEE (+110) (Series Betting)
When reviewing the pitching matchups, the middle game is a tossup and the Mets should have edge with Jacob deGrom in series finale. Where this series can turn is in the opener. While Matt Garza has not shown much in recent years, he’s gotten off to a good start with Milwaukee and as crazy as this sounds, Garza is the more stable choice compared to Matt Harvey. I will back the Mets thinking Harvey owes his team a strong showing and needs their confidence back and New York finds a way to win.
Betting Trend – 66% backing Milwaukee
Doug’s VPID Take – New York wins
MLB – CHIC. CUBS (-110) at ST. LOUIS (-120) (Series Betting)
St. Louis has blown by the Cubs in the NL Central standings because of better starting pitching, a more reliable bullpen late in games and hitting in the clutch more often. Chicago has played very much like the .500 team they are and have not handled the role of the kings of baseball particularly well. Other than Game 1 where the Cardinals deserve to be favored, the other two contests could go either way and given the state of where these squads are coming into this series, have to lean with the Redbirds.
Betting Trend – 67% backing Chicago
Doug’s VPID Take – St. Louis wins
MLB – BALTIMORE (-135) at KANSAS CITY (+115) (Series Betting)
Is Kansas City finally emerging from a prolonged slump? Maybe the Royals are finally waking up in winning three of four and we will have a much better indication about K.C. facing first place Baltimore. Right now the biggest difference in these teams is on offense, with the Orioles averaging 1.5 more runs a game. In the series lid-lifter, Dylan Bundy and Danny Duffy sounds like a contest that could go either way the money line is a Pick. Have to give a modest edge to Chris Tillman over Nate Karns and while Kevin Gausman is not always a comfortable choice, he’s better than Chris Young. The O’s get the call.
Betting Trend – 68% backing Baltimore
Doug’s VPID Take – Baltimore wins
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 107-116-5 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 56-60-2 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 155-173-7 ATS