We have our weekend line moves ready to go for baseball along with some series wagering thoughts. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (172-120, 59.0%), to see what we are thinking. Line Moves will be taking some time off and returning right after the All-Star break on July 14th.
MLB – (951) SAN FRANCISCO at (952) PITTSBURGH 7:05 ET CSBA, RTPT (side and total)
San Francisco heads east after a three-game sweep of Colorado, while Pittsburgh tries to win three in a row for only the second time since late April. Baseball bettors like the Pirates chances and have elevated them from -110 to -130. While I like how the Giants are swinging the bats and Johnny Cueto (5-7, 4.20 ERA) having a 19-5 career record against the Bucs, Gerrit Cole (6-6, 4.11) has a 1.35 ERA in his last three starts and he and teammates have never lost to San Fran (4-0). The total is also on the move, up from 8 to 8.5 and I cannot overlook San Francisco is 12-3 UNDER in road games after three or more consecutive wins.
Betting Trend – 81% backing Pittsburgh, 76% on Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Pittsburgh wins, Lean Under
MLB – (955) CHIC. CUBS at (956) CINCINNATI 7:10 ET WGN, FSOH (side and total)
Chicago wraps up playing 17 of 21 road games, with three in Cincinnati. The Cubs got a split with Washington with a clutch ninth inning rally yesterday. Those betting baseball are not sure that big victory will carry over and have dumped Chicago from -131 to -11o or less. The Cubs have only scored 3.1 RPG in their last seven tries, which plays a role in the money line sinking and the total falling from 9.5 to 9. However, with the Reds 3-14 this season when facing lefties like Mike Montgomery (1-4, 2.50) and 16-4 OVER after allowing eight runs or more, I will side with Chicago and the OVER.
Betting Trend – 68% backing Chicago, 86% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Chicago wins and Over
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MLB – WASHINGTON (-115) at ST. LOUIS (-105) (Series Betting)
With Washington having blown yet another save and game on Thursday, they hit the road to St. Louis, where they have won four of six recently. In the series opener, Mike Leake and Cards are only 5-16 at Busch Stadium, but most of the blame goes to Redbirds offense at 3.4 RPG. If St. Louis cannot do better than that versus a struggling Tanner Roark, they deserve to lose. In Game 2, I prefer Gio Gonzalez over inconsistent Michael Wacha. The series finale will be on ESPN and it should be a beauty, with Max Scherzer facing Carlos Martinez. With the Nationals 25-15 on the road, I like their chances.
Betting Trend – 50-50 split
Doug’s VPID Take – Washington wins
MLB – N.Y. YANKEES (+135) at HOUSTON (-160) (Series Betting)
With New York slumping and having fall out of first place, not exactly a great place for a weekend series for them in Houston. In Game 1, while Michael Pineda is capable, hard not to take Lance McCullers Jr. who has been exceeding sharp. The Yankees should be more on even terms in the next two confrontations with Jordan Montgomery and Luis Severino battling with Francis Martes and Mike Fiers respectively. Even if the Yanks were playing better, difficult to go against the Astros these days.
Betting Trend – 88% backing Houston
Doug’s VPID Take – Houston wins
MLB – MINNESOTA (+105) at KANSAS CITY (-125) (Series Betting)
With the starting pitching matchups on Saturday and Sunday, those division games could go either way. That suggests Friday’s matchup of Evrin Santana and Jason Vargas could be the table-setter for series. Minnesota is 7-1 thus far against Kansas City and is superb 24-12 on the road. I like the Royals to win the opener, but prefer the Twins overall to continue to be magical away from home.
Betting Trend – 95% backing Kansas City
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Minnesota
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 139-148-8 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 88-78-3 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 218-209-11 ATS