Before I forget, Happy Father’s Day to all and make sure you do something right for him or your kids are great to you. For line moves, all baseball, including series wagering for the weekend. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (151-104, 59.2% of late), to see what we are thinking. See you back here next week.
MLB – (953) ARIZONA at (954) PHILADELPHIA 7:05 ET FSAZ, CSP (side and total)
How bad are things for Arizona pitcher Patrick Corbin (5-6)? His ERA has skyrocketed from 2.29 in April to 5.38 after his last seven outings. From a wagering perspective, it gets even worse, as Philadelphia, who just ended their eight-game losing streak last night, has gone from a -113 to -127. Aaron Nola (3-4,4.40 ERA) will toe the rubber for the Phillies. While the D-Backs and Corbin are 0-5 on the road this season, I will lean with hotter Arizona club to hit their way to victory. Also, if Corbin is so terrible to bet against, why would the total fall from 9.5 to 8.5? The Phils are 9-1 OVER after conceding two or fewer runs this season.
Betting Trend – 67% backing Philadelphia and 64% on Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Arizona, Play Over
MLB – (963) SAN FRANCISCO at (964) COLORADO 8:40 ET CSBA, RTRM (side and total)
San Francisco came back from a 9-1 deficit to tie Colorado in the 9th inning last night, only to lose in the bottom of the frame. Those betting baseball are not backing away from the Giants and have flipped them from +114 to -109 favorites. I’m not seeing it with Jeff Samardzija (2-8, 4.31) the San Fran starter versus rookie Antonio Senzatela (8-2, 3.84). Besides how unreliable Samards is, the Giants are 2-11 revenging a loss where opponent scored 10 or more runs. San Fran might be 16-6 OVER after a road loss, yet I am not convinced the total lifting from 10.5 to 11.5 is correct.
Betting Trend – 97% backing Colorado and 62% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Colorado wins, Lean Under
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MLB – ST. LOUIS (-105) at BALTIMORE (-115) (Series Betting)
I could very well be all wrong with Baltimore, being a strong home team at 21-10 and St. Louis 2-6 vs. the AL in 2017. But when I see Carlos Martinez, Adam Wainwright and Lance Lynn facing in order Kevin Gausman, Wade Miley and Alec Asher, the Cardinals appear to be the correct wager here.
Betting Trend – 60% backing St. Louis
Doug’s VPID Take – St. Louis win
MLB – SEATTLE (+115) at TEXAS (-135) (Series Betting)
Look for this series to pivot on the Game 2 winner. Seattle has the edge with James Paxton in the series opener and Texas in the finale on Sunday with Yu Darvish. Of course neither is guaranteed to win. Saturday features two shaky starters in Yovani Gallardo and Martin Perez and we are also talking about a pair of crummy bullpens. Let’s play Texas because they are home.
Betting Trend – 90% backing Texas
Doug’s VPID Take – Texas wins
MLB – BOSTON (+110) at HOUSTON (-120) (Series Betting)
Houston has lost six of nine and is trying to overcome starting pitcher injuries. At least two from the regular rotation will go in this series, Mike Fiers in Game 1 and Joe Musgrove on ESPN Sunday night baseball. The Astros are a small favorite on Friday, taking on Drew Pomeraz. On Saturday, a scuffling Pick Porcello faces David Paulino and in final contest David Price gets the call. This outcome would appear to be about which offense does the job and I will lean with Houston to get it done. One last thing, these two are 10-3 OVER of late and I would not be surprised to see at least two OVER’s in H-Town.
Betting Trend – 73% backing Houston
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Houston
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 129-133-8 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 82-73-3 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 203-193-11 ATS