With August here, time to get those vacations in before school starts and other things, but make sure to take care of yourself and get a little baseball betting in. For the weekend we have line moves on a couple Friday contests and as per usual some series wagering. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (194-154) to see what we are thinking. See you back here Tuesday.
MLB – (905) SAN DIEGO at (906) PITTSBURGH 7:05 ET FSSD, SNPT
These teams met in San Diego last week and all three contests ended up as UNDER’s, with the losing team totaling five runs. But that was in the thicker Pacific Ocean marine air, now in Pittsburgh, the Allegheny River just does not have the same impact and the total has climbed from 8.5 to 9. Travis Wood (2-3, 6.42) pitched well against the Pirates last week (two runs allowed in six innings), but obviously by his ERA, that has not been typical performance. Though the Bucs Ivan Nova (10-8, 3.75) has been terrific at home (2.83 ERA), in his past three starts he has a 7.87 ERA. Just not sold on Padres offense and Nova is 8-1 UNDER vs. a NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season.
Betting Trend – 80% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
MLB – (925) SEATTLE at (926) KANSAS CITY 8:15 ET SNNW, FSKC
James Paxton (11-3, 2.68) was the AL pitcher of the month for July when he went 6-0 with a 1.37 ERA, allowing six runs in 39 1/3 innings while striking out 46 and walking six in six starts. Baseball bettors are enthralled and have taken Seattle from a -145 favorite to -165 against Kansas City. He will oppose Jason Hammel (5-8, 4.75), who is having a reverse season from the last several. Known as a fast starter and bad finisher, Hammel has been just the opposite in 2017 and has an ERA of 3.32 ERA in his past trio of starts. Both clubs have strong trends as a road favorite or home underdog, which even things out, thus, I will lean with the value of the home dog at such a high price.
Betting Trend – 74% backing Seattle
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Kansas City
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MLB – ARIZONA (+120) at SAN FRANCISCO (-140) (Series Betting)
There is no question who the better team is, yet San Francisco is actually the favorite. The Giants with Bumgarner is a good bet in Game 1 and Taijuan Walker of Arizona and a suddenly hot D-Backs offense looks like a smart play on Saturday. That leaves Sunday and what either team might get out of Patrick Corbin or Jeff Samardjiza is simply guess work. Here is guessing the better club wins.
Betting Trend – 67% backing Arizona
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Arizona
MLB – L.A. DODGERS (-155) at N.Y. METS (+135) (Series Betting)
From a starting pitching perspective, the Mets can be competitive in all three games this weekend. Where Los Angeles separates themselves is having the better offense team (5.1 RPG vs. 4.8 RPG) and being vastly superior late in games with the No.1 bullpen, going against New York, who is 14th in bullpen ERA in the National League.
Betting Trend – 80% backing Los Angeles
Doug’s VPID Take – Los Angeles wins
MLB – MIAMI (-110) at ATLANTA (-110) (Series Betting)
Not exactly a riveting series, however, I picked it because the odds are so tight. The series opener is a quality pitching matchup based on current form with Adam Conley facing R.A. Dickey. Let’s give slight nod to Miami. In the middle game, Dan Straily is scuffling and though Mike Foltynewicz is coming of rotten outing versus Philadelphia, I will give him and Atlanta the edge. In the series finale, in spite of Jose Urena being up and down for Marlins, let’s call for him to come through and Miami wins the series.
Betting Trend – 75% backing Miami
Doug’s VPID Take – Miami wins
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 150-167-10 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 103-87-3 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 241-227-13 ATS