College football starts cranking and we have the latest line moves on those for Saturday. We also have the biggest line moves in baseball for Friday and NFLX matchup on Saturday. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (220-178) to see what we are thinking. See you back here Tuesday.
MLB – (955) PITTSBURGH at (956) CINCINNATI 7:10 ET ATTSN-P, FSOH
Pittsburgh’s playoff chances are all but gone having lost nine of 12, but those betting baseball think that at least tonight they can turn their fortunes around. The sportsbooks sent the Pirates out as +105 road underdogs and as of now they are -125 favorites. When looking at the Bucs Ivan Nova (11-10, 3.81 ERA), I find he and his teammates are 4-10 away from when he starts and they have lost eight of 10 to the Reds this season. Backing Cincinnati’s Robert Stephenson (1-4, 6.13) is hardly comforting, but I would rather go that direction than taking Pitt.
Betting Trend – 83% backing Pittsburgh
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Cincinnati
MLB – (959) COLORADO at (960) ATLANTA 7:35 ET ATTSN-RM, FSSO
Our second matchup is also a flip, with Atlanta opening at +105 and switched to -120 versus Colorado. The Rockies finally stopped the bleeding with win at Kansas City, yet even with that victory they have dropped 19 of the their last 26 away assignments. At this juncture, I cannot support Julio Teheran (7-11, 5.02) who is 1-9 at home this season and 3-13 as a home favorite of -110 or higher since last year. (Braves Record) I can root for Chad Bettis (0-0, 1.93), who will make his third start since returning from testicular cancer and is 10-3 vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs a game. (Rockies Record)
Betting Trend – 60% backing Atlanta
Doug’s VPID – Colorado wins
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NFLX – Saturday – (267) INDIANAPOLIS at (268) PITTSBURGH 7:30 ET
With still no timetable for Andrew Luck’s return, Indianapolis will play Scott Tolzien and Stephen Morris at quarterback in this game and that convinced enough football bettors to trust Pittsburgh to do the job and bumped them from -4.5 to -6. No question the value is with the Colts who have yet to win this August and they are facing a 2-0 Steelers crew. At this time, this number confuses me and I will lean with Indy, who is 7-0 ATS after being outgained by 200 or more total yards in their previous game.
Betting Trend – 83% backing Pittsburgh
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Indianapolis
CFB – Saturday – (291) OREGON STATE at (292) COLORADO STATE 2:30 ET CSBSN
The first battle of the new season will be played in a brand new venue, currently named Colorado State Stadium. The pictures are gorgeous and both squads have their starting quarterbacks returning. The betting interest has been on the totals side, dumping it 62.5 to 60. Each team does bring back eight defensive starters from ordinary defenses. With the Rams at home, a good team and excited about first game in a new stadium, I prefer the higher score.
Betting Trend – 83% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
CFB – Saturday – (295) SAN JOSE STATE at (296) SOUTH FLORIDA 7:30 ET CBSSN (side and total)
South Florida is ranked No.19 and is the favorite to win the AAC and faces San Jose State who has returned to being a struggling program. The Bulls have charged from -19 to -22 point favorites and the early total of 63.5 has blown up like Clenson’s Dabo Swinney’s contract to 70. South Florida should run wild on the Spartans and reach 300+ yards and I will back them. I thought Over was a good play, not anymore and I will a passing nod.
Betting Trend – 87% backing USF and 76% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – USF covers and slight lean Over
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 166-183-10 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 119-92-4 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 275-243-14 ATS