For line moves, we have a couple of MLB contests on Friday and NFL preseason football scattered all over the weekend. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (209-173) to see what we are thinking. See you back here Tuesday.
MLB – (911) PHILADELPHIA at (912) SAN FRANCISCO 10:15 ET CSP, CSBA
Without question, this is not the marquee game of the day, yet the flow of money towards San Francisco is extremely one-sided, moving them from -125 to -160, in spite of Matt Moore (3-12, 5.71 ERA) being the Giants starting pitcher. As bad as Moore has been, the Phillies Zach Eflin (1-4, 5.76) is equally as awful and Philadelphia is almost tragic 19-45 on the road. This has the makings of a hold your nose selection.
Betting Trend – 95% backing San Francisco
Doug’s VPID – Lean San Francisco
MLB – (917) N.Y. YANKEES at (918) BOSTON 7:10 ET YES, NESN
These clubs switch locations and move over to Bean-Town with Boston trying to win this series again and extend lead. The focus is from the baseball bettors perspective is on the total, up from 9 to 9.5. I’m not having any of it with a pair of left-handers starting, Jordan Montgomery (3.94 ERA) for New York and Drew Pomeranz (3.39) for Boston. Why I prefer the UNDER in this contest is because both offenses do not as well versus lefties, scoring about 10 percent less and cannot get over the Red Sox are 17-7 UNDER at Fenway when the total is 9 or 9.5.
Betting Trend – 74% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
NFLX – (407) MINNESOTA at (408) SEATTLE 10:10 ET NFLN
Football is a funny game, with Seattle among the favorites to win the NFC and after crushing the L.A. Chargers (that is still sinking in) by 31 point last week in an exhibition game, they moved to the favorite in the conference to reach the Super Bowl and were elevated from -3 to -4 over Minnesota. While I comprehend what bettors think, the Vikings are 9-1 ATS in August football the last three years and favorites like the Seahawks after a win by 14 or more points, against opponent after scoring three points or less in the first half of last game are 4-23 ATS.
Betting Trend – 73% backing Seattle
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Minnesota
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NFLX – Saturday – (411) KANSAS CITY at (412) CINCINNATI 7:00 ET
Kansas City put in a rather desultory performance in losing to San Francisco last week 27-17, and was outgained by 247 yards. With Cincinnati winning by 11 in Week 1, the money is follow the Chiefs, who have been flipped from +2 to -2.5. While I understand the logic, K.C. like Dallas has long placed little value on preseason game outcomes, instead trying to have best roster possible and is 0-7 ATS away off a home loss by 10 or more points.
Betting Trend – 84% backing Kansas City
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Cincinnati
NFLX – Saturday – (421) DENVER at (422) SAN FRANCISCO 10:00 ET NFLN
One has to believe new head coach Kyle Shanahan wants to change the culture of San Francisco and knows the roster will take longer. That is why he, like many new coaches want to win now, to help set the right tenor for when the regular season starts. Evidently bettors agree and have taken the 49ers from -1 to -2.5. One aspect I worry about, Denver also has a new coach in Vance Joseph and he has the superior squad and he wants to win also to establish himself and the Broncos are 12-3 ATS as a road underdog of three points or less.
Betting Trend – 82% backing San Francisco
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Broncos
NFLX – Sunday – (427) ATLANTA at (428) PITTSBURGH 4:00 ET NFLN
Though Pittsburgh only had 226 yards of offense at the New York Giants, that was enough to win 20-12. That did not provide football bettors with enough satisfaction and they changed the Steelers from -2 to +2.5 point underdogs versus visiting Atlanta. Place me in agreement with the line movement with Pitt 0-8 ATS off an upset win as a road underdog.
Betting Trend – 94% backing Atlanta
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Atlanta
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 160-181-10 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 113-89-4 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 265-236-14 ATS