We have all kinds of action in line moves for you this weekend! We have NFL preseason football, baseball game action and some MLB series wagering on two high profile teams. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (202-165) to see what we are thinking. See you back here next week.
NFLX – (267) PITTSBURGH at (268) N.Y. GIANTS 7:00 ET NFLN (side and total)
Football bettors are reacting to Pittsburgh’s less than aggressive approach about the preseason, which finds them 3-14 SU since 2013, including eight straight road setbacks by an average of 12 points. The Steelers have been shoved from +2.5 to +4 or +4.5, depending on the sportsbook. The total in turn has been lowered from 38 to 36. In truth, hard to argue with either sentiment, though backing the Giants at that many points is iffy considering the time of year.
Betting Trend – 74% backing New York and 78% on Over
Doug’s VPID – Slight lean New York and Lean Under
MLB – (959) ATLANTA at (960) ST. LOUIS 8:15 ET FSSO, FSMW
The Redbirds are hotter than the heat and humidity of St. Louis, winners of six in a row and averaging super-sized 8.6 RPG. Why than would the Cardinals be slipping from -165 favorites to -140 against Atlanta crew that has dropped 13 of 17? To begin with, Adam Wainwright (11-5, 5.00 ERA) remains a dicey choice unless the Cards are hitting and the Braves Mike Foltynewicz (10-6, 3.94) continues to show improvement and might be Atlanta’s best starter at the moment. Though I like the Braves righty, the Cards are smoldering and the Bravos are floundering and I’ll take added value of St. Louis at the lower price.
Betting Trend – 82% backing St. Louis
Doug’s VPID Take – St. Louis wins
MLB – (261) CHIC. CUBS at (262) ARIZONA 9:40 ET CSN-C, FSAZ
While John Lackey (9-9, 4.81) has been lowering his ERA from 5.26, not everyone is comfortable that he will master Arizona like he has in the past (4-0, 2.76 ERA in five starts) and the total exploded from 9.5 to 10.5 early Friday, before settling at 10. Lackey will oppose Taijuan Walker (6-5, 3.60), who has allowed more than three earned runs in only one of his past 13 starts. With Wilson Contreras on the DL an Chicago’s offense lacking in clutch hits most of the year, expect the Cubs to be 13-4 UNDER as an underdog of +100 or higher by late Friday night.
Betting Trend – 58% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
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MLB – BOSTON (-110) at N.Y. YANKEES (-110) (Series Betting)
People not from Boston or New York complain these two teams are always on national TV. Yet both draw eyeballs so somebody is watching. The Red Sox have won eight in a row to take charge in the AL East and the first game is a battle of left-handers in Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Jamie Garcia. No real edge there. Probably have to lean with Luis Severino of the Yankees in Game 2, however, Drew Pomeranz has performed well all season for Boston. On ESPN Sunday night, while Chris Sale could lose, I will not be betting against him. New York holds a slim 12-10 edge at home the last three years and will come up short.
Betting Trend – 85% backing Boston
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Boston
NFLX – Saturday – (265) OAKLAND at (266) ARIZONA 10:00 ET
Often, when a team plays in the Hall of Fame contest, this is the week they dial it back, thus, it was confounding to see Arizona be switched from +1 to -3 in this contest. Both want to look at a lot of players, which can change dynamics quickly. I would rather take this many points than given them and am well aware the visitor is 5-0 ATS when these two collide.
Betting Trend – 79% backing Oakland
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Oakland
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 156-173-10 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 110-89-3 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 254-232-13 ATS