We continue Week 14 of the NFL season with a plethora of line movement action. Always review the nuggets since they are worth a look.
NFL – (105) INDIANAPOLIS at (106) BALTIMORE 1:00 EST CBS
The news of Baltimore rising from a 15-point favorite to 16.5-points wouldn’t qualify as astounding information, since the competition is the 0-12 Indianapolis Colts. Someone in the Colts organization made a few cosmetic changes last week in making Dan Orlovsky the starting quarterback and firing defensive coordinator Larry Coyer. The truth is Indianapolis has been blindsided with injuries this season, however, the front office has done such a poor job in drafting players in recent years and the replacements are marginal NFL players. The Colts are 3-9 ATS this season. Baltimore is ready for late season push and still hopes to secure a No.1 or 2 seed to have a home playoff game and a bye week. The Ravens are 38-22 ATS in December. Update – The marketplace is satisfied with the Colts being super-sized home favorites and better than 80 percent of the books have them in same position. 3DW Position – Baltimore covers
NFL – (109) OAKLAND at (110) GREEN BAY 4:15 EST CBS (side and total)
Both the side and total moved in this rematch of sorts from the second Super Bowl. Football bettors see a correlation in the potential outcome, as they lowered Oakland from +12 to +11 and dropped the total from 55 to 53. The thinking has to be the Raiders are still 5-1 ATS on the road despite their showing in Miami and the only way they can compete is keeping the score down. Oakland will come into this matchup 21-9 UNDER on the road if the total is 45.5 points or higher. Green Bay might support this theory since they are 14-5 UNDER after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game. Concerning the side action, the Raiders are 14-5 ATS after one more ATS setbacks, but the Packers are 10-2 ATS off a road win since last season. Update – As we suspected, the money is coming back towards the Super Bowl champions, with most books at 11.5 and the original number of -12 would hardly be a surprise by game time. The total has continued its downward path, with 52 or lower commonly found. 3DW Position – Green Bay covers and Under
NFL – (115) NEW ORLEANS at (116) TENNESSEE 1:00 EST FOX (side and total)
After a pair of convincing wins at home and riding a four-game winning streak (4-0 ATS), New Orleans is expected to be tested on the road in Nashville. The Saints were released by most sportsbooks at -4.5 and were checked down to -3.5-point road favorites. It is easy to understand why Tennessee is being backed with the cash. The Titans rushing offense has piled up 389 yards in the last two games, with Chris Johnson getting hot and being able to maneuver in space. New Orleans allows 114.6 yards per game (16th), yet the more important factor in this southern-style battle is the Saints concede 4.9 yards per carry (30th). The Titans are 18-7 ATS after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in consecutive games and is 38-22 ATS vs. the NFC. Update – About one-third of the numbers check have the Saints back on the march, now to -4. Given the Saints and Over go together like Brad and Angelina, the total has popped from 48.5 to 50. 3DW Position – One of my plays and Under
NFL – (117) PHIALDELPHIA at (118) MIAMI 1:00 EST FOX
The total in this Eastern Time zone encounter has been rising like homemade bread from 44 to 45.5. The conjecture is it’s because Michael Vick will return as the Philadelphia quarterback or the Eagles defense will be on the field about half the time. This much we know, Miami is 10-2 UNDER this season and they are 11-3 UNDER after one or more spread wins since last year. 3DW Position – Play Under
NFL – (119) NEW ENGLAND at (120) WASHINGTON 1:00 EST CBS
In a world of “what goes around comes around”, Washington felt what that was like in the eight-day span. The Redskins flew by Seattle with a 16-0 fourth quarter blitz to end their six-game losing streak. One week later, Washington gave up three touchdowns in just over three minutes in the last stanza and saw a 16-13 lead become a 34-19 stunning defeat. The Redskins general efforts are receiving praise and for this contest they have been lowered a point to a +8 home underdog. New England is a stellar 61-36 ATS on the road under Bill Belichick; nonetheless, the Skins are 9-0 ATS versus defensive teams allowing six or more yards a play in the second half of the season. Update – Bettors have studied Rex Grossman tape and are moving New England back to original starting point. 3DW Position – Washington covers
NFL – (121) ATLANTA at (122) CAROLINA 1:00 EST FOX
It’s time for another history lesson from your old friend Doug. The total has been dropping like the Kardasian’s popularity ratings, down at least 1.5-points to 47.5 or less. The past 16 times these teams have met in Carolina, the UNDER is 13-3. Toss that into the juicier with Atlanta sporting a 9-3 UNDER mark in 2011 and the Panthers being 22-6 UNDER at home after two or more consecutive wins against the spread. It doesn’t take degree from the California Institute of Technology to figure the best way to bet this game, does it? 3DW Position – One of my plays
NFL – (125) SAN FRANCISCO at (126) ARIZONA 4:05 EST FOX
As any totals play should be, this is strictly by the numbers. This NFC West showdown has a cascading total, starting at 40.5 and sliding to 39. In spite of sporting a recent 4-1 record, Arizona has only averaged 17.8 PPG in this stretch. The San Francisco 49ers defense is permitting a measly 13.4 PPG and has held the Cardinals to substandard nine points a contest in previous five meetings. 3DW Position – Play Under
NFL – (127) CHICAGO at (128) DENVER 4:05 EST FOX
No Jay Cutler and no Matt Forte, that spells very few points for the Chicago Bears. Bettors quickly hit the linemakers total of 36.5 and punched it down to 35.5. The Bears defense is under a great deal of pressure as witnessed last week, as even a Hail Mary pass was too much to overcome for the offense. Chicago is 11-3 UNDER as a road underdog the last three seasons. Giddy times in the Mile High City, with Denver on a five-game winning streak, tied for first place, with a polarizing quarterback who refuses to lose. The Broncos are 16-5 OVER at home when the total is between 35.5 and 38 points. Update – In the neighborhood of 40 percent of wagering outposts have moved the total to 36 points. 3DW Position – Play Over
3Daily Winners Nuggets
NFL ATS Nugget
Miami is 11-1 ATS versus team’s averaging130 or more rushing yards per game the last three seasons.
NFL Totals Nugget
New England is 9-0 OVER after allowing three points or less in the first half of last game the last two years.
NFL First Half Line Nugget
Green Bay is 11-0 ATS against the first half line versus offensive teams averaging 5.65 or more yards a play since last year.