For line moves, we move ahead to Week 13 this Sunday. We will not cover the Giants/Raiders total going down two points since that is because of New York quarterback change. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks to see what we are thinking this week. See you back here next week.
NFL – (351) DETROIT at (352) BALTIMORE 1:00 ET FOX *New*
With Baltimore have posted a trio of shutouts, it would seem the last thing you would see is a rising total. Nevertheless, that is what we have in this nonconference clash, as the total has climbed from 41 to 43.5. The leading indicator as to why is Detroit being 8-3 OVER this season and the Ravens have been fortunate to have faced five backup quarterbacks this season. This is prickly pick, but I will lean with the higher score and Baltimore is 9-2 OVER after a home game.
Betting Trend – 77% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
NFL – (353) SAN FRANCISCO at (354) CHICAGO 1:00 ET CBS
Not a good sign for Chicago, dropping from -5 to -3 point home favorites against 1-10 San Francisco. It is understandable the skepticism about the Bears because of their offense, but it’s not like the 49ers are explosive. From a value prospective, you have two similar offenses and Chicago the better defensive squad and at adjusted price the home team has increased value. Update – What has happened is sportsbooks do not want to come off the -3 and they have added juice, anywhere from -115 to -125 if you want back Da Bears.
Betting Trend – Was 70% backing San Francisco, now 62%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Chicago
NFL – (359) DENVER at (360) MIAMI 1:00 ET FOX *New Total*
Talk about two rats in hat! As bad as Denver is, they actually have support at Miami and have gone from +1 to -1 or even -1.5 depending on the sportsbook. This game has ‘pass’ written all over it, but we will side with the Dolphins with the Broncos a miserable 0-5 SU and against the spread on the road this season. Update – Denver has mostly remained a 1.5 point favorite, with a few wagering outlets at -2. The other development is the total going higher, up two points to 40. I am backing the Fins since I cannot trust the Broncos and the OVER makes sense because somebody will make costly turnover(s) which leads to cheap touchdown(s).
Betting Trend – Was 75% backing Denver, now 42% and 76% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Miami and Over
NFL – (365) TAMPA BAY at (366) GREEN BAY 1:00 ET FOX *New* (side and total)
Not sure if this is a coincidence, but Tampa Bay’s Jameis Winston was upgraded to ‘probable’ and the Buccaneers go from -2 to +2.5 point underdogs at Green Bay. Of course we know that is not true, but still is humorous. It has more to do with the Packers giving Pittsburgh a real run last Sunday night and Brett Hundley showing vast improvement. The total has also been juiced from 43 to 45. The total is almost unplayable in my opinion, however, I will call for Green Bay’s losing streak to end and they cover.
Betting Trend – 92% backing Green Bay and 63% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Green Bay covers and no clue on total
NFL – (367) KANSAS CITY at (368) N.Y. JETS 1:00 ET CBS
After 5-0 start, who would have guessed Kansas City would be slipping as a favorite from -5 to -3 against the New York Jets. There is a great deal of turmoil surrounding the Chiefs, yet the fact is they are still in first place and have five games to fix what has gone wrong. The Jets are now making mistakes and beating themselves. Update – About 20 percent of book have shifted Kansas City back to -3.5, with the rest still at -3. There is quite a bit of sharp money on the Jets with the points or money line, but I think the Chiefs take advantage of the Flyboys miscues to cover.
Betting Trend – Was 62% backing New York, now 54%
Doug’s VPID Take – Kansas City covers
NFL – (377) PHILADELPHIA at (378) SEATTLE 8:30 ET NBC
My oh my, isn’t this interesting! One of the best home teams in football has blown up as a home underdog. That is correct, Seattle has been sent from +3.5 to +6 versus the best team in the NFL, Philadelphia. The last time the Seahawks were a home underdog was 2012, 47 games ago (includes playoffs). A lot of pride in that Seattle uniform. Update – You had to this coming, as Philadelphia is back down to -5, with a few stragglers at -5.5. Loads of handicappers on the Seahawks.
Betting Trend – Was 66% backing Philadelphia, now 56%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Seattle
Public’s Favorite Sides Bets (20-16 ATS) in order: Patriots, Packers, Saints
Public’s Favorite Totals Bets (20-16 ATS) in order: Browns/Chargers OVER, Eagles/Seahawks OVER and Lions/Ravens OVER
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 273-274-10 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 173-138-4 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 425-385 -14 ATS