For line moves, only one new one which we will cover, plus all the other new developments. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks to see what we are thinking. See you back here next week.
NFL – (251) MINNESOTA at (252) WASHINGTON 1:00 ET FOX *New total*
Washington has restored a little faith with upset at Seattle and they have been shifted from +2.5 to +1 versus the Vikings at home. The Redskins got a couple regulars back on defense which really helped and Minnesota is not overpowering on offense with QB Case Keenum. However, the Vikes are rested and 12-3 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in two straight contests. Update – The Vikings have re-docked at -1.5 in this contest, with the bigger news the total has fallen two points to 41. I would surmise the strong Minnesota defense is part of the reason along with a healthier Washington defense. However, my opinion is this teams will surpass the adjusted total because of both offenses and I like Minny to cover.
Betting Trend – Was 70% backing Washington, now 57% and 84%on UNDER
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Minnesota, Play Over
NFL – (255) PITTSBURGH at (256) INDIANAPOLIS 1:00 ET CBS
In this AFC affair, bettors have forced the books to push the total from 43 to 44.5. There is a lot of conflicting information to not allow one to make a good decision. Indianapolis permits NFL-worst 28.6 PPG, but only rings up 18 PPG. In spite of what should be a potent Pittsburgh offense, they are pedestrian 21.9 PPG and defense is Steel Curtain-like in giving up only 16.4 PPG. Hard to ignore the Steelers are 12-3 UNDER on the road. Update – Since doing this article on Wednesday, the total went to 45 and that is where it has stayed.
Betting Trend – Was 88% backing Over, now 90%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
NFL – (259) N.Y. JETS at (260) TAMPA BAY 1:00 ET CBS *New total*
Jameis Winston is being placed on the shelf for a bit with an weak throwing shoulder and in comes Ryan Fitzpatrick, formerly of the New York Jets. I have never hid my distain for Fitzpatrick, who can put up good numbers, sometimes, and nearly every time for losing teams and is not above a four or five interception game either. I have no problem with Jets flying from a Pick to -2.5 at Tampa Bay. Update – Gang Green has been locked into -2.5 all week, but the total has really gone up from 41 to 43.5. I will stick with the Flyboys and call the Fitzpatrick interception that will send total OVER.
Betting Trend – Was 83% backing N.Y. Jets, now 74% and 88% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Jets and Over
NFL – (263) NEW ORLEANS at (264) BUFFALO 1:00 ET FOX
Buffalo had an off night against the Jets last Thursday in 34-21 defeat and on the season is still only permitting 18.6 PPG. The new and improved New Orleans defense is conceding just 15 PPG during their six-game winning streak, which all leads to this. The total in this nonconference clash has been dumped from 48.5 to 46.6 points. While this makes sense, the Bills are 11-1 OVER at home. Update – Not at all shocked to see the total go back up and at present it is at 48. I bet the OVER on Wednesday at value price of 46.5.
Betting Trend – Was 90% backing Under, now 51%
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
NFL – (267) HOUSTON at (268) L.A. RAMS 4:05 ET CBS
The Rams are rollin’ and Houston was until Deshaun Watson went down. The Texans offense struggled mightily against the worst defense in the NFL in loss to Indianapolis and with that they have blown up from +10 to +11.5 at L.A. North. If Houston does not come to play, the Rams have given proof they will have no mercy. Update – Interesting to note where the Rams are. At sportsbooks that cater to the masses, Los Angeles is -11.5 or -12. At sportsbooks known for catering to sharper player, L.A. is -10.5. Either way I prefer the Rams.
Betting Trend – Was 85% backing Los Angeles, now 66%
Doug’s VPID Take – Los Angeles cover
NFL – (271) N.Y. GIANTS at (272) SAN FRANCISCO 4:25 ET FOX
I want some props on this one for being a professional. This could hardly be a worse matchup, but there is line movement and being the diligent professional I am, I have a short story to write about, with the Giants lifted from a Pick to -2.5. I would not recommend betting on this matchup since it almost it is almost as sad as watching the 30 for 30 “Nature Boy” story, but with New York getting some important defenders back, this makes sense to me. Update – About 30 percent of the books have bumped the Giants to -3, with the rest still at -2.5. The line makes sense, but I hate this game and I say New York has 51% chance to cover. #pass
Betting Trend – Was 86% backing N.Y. Giants, now 80%
Doug’s VPID Take – Very slight lean New York
NFL – (273) NEW ENGLAND at (274) DENVER 8:30 ET NBC *New*
The total in the Sunday night game has dropped two points to 44.5 because of the all woes with the Denver offense and the defense expected to be EXTREMELY fired up to face New England after be torched by Philly for 51 points. Though not a big play for me, I will agree with this and uncovered the Broncos are 13-3 UNDER after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in the first half of two straight games.
Betting Trend – 90% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
Public’s Favorite Sides Bets (13-14 ATS) in order: Steelers, Rams and Giants
Public’s Favorite Totals Bets (17-10 ATS) in order: Steelers/Colts OVER, Bengals/Texans OVER and Chargers/Jaguars OVER
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 254-257-10 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 156-126-4 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 393-351 -14 ATS