We hit the halfway point of the NFL regular season and have the latest line moves and week look back at what we talked about on Wednesday. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (28-23 run) to see what we are thinking. See you back here next week.
NFL – (451) DENVER at (452) PHILADELPHIA 1:00 ET CBS *New*
In this nonconference clash, we have a devolving total, dropping from 44 to 41.5. This would seem to be a combination of two strong defense and lots of uncertainty about Denver’s offense. The Broncos are making a ton of mistakes and I am not sure Brock Osweiler is going to play a clean game and think the Eagles will capitalize off Denver miscues for an OVER.
Betting Trend – 57% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
NFL – (453) L.A. RAMS at (454) N.Y. GIANTS 1:00 ET FOX
Though the Rams are averaging 30 PPG, the total has crumbled from 43.5 to 42 because the New York Giants lack the skill players to make a dent in Los Angeles defense in scoring 16 PPG. Aging Eli Manning does not sling it like he used to at 37 and after losing all his wide-outs, there are not many pass receivers he can trust. Update – This total has stayed rock solid at 42 and there must be a lot of square action on this game based on current betting trends as you can see.
Betting Trend – Was 51% backing Under, now 86% Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
NFL – (455) TAMPA BAY at (456) NEW ORLEANS 1:00 ET FOX *New*
The total has been bumped up in this NFC South showdown, now up two digits to 52. When New Orleans is at their best, the OVER’s flow. Is spite of improved defense, look for Drew Brees to keep rolling versus Tampa Bay defense and New Orleans goes to 11-2 OVER after three consecutive covers as a favorite.
Betting Trend – 55% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
NFL – (457) CINCINNATI at (458) JACKSONVILLE 1:00 ET CBS
Clearly someone has more faith in Jacksonville than I do, pushing the Jaguars from -3.5 to -4.5 against Cincinnati. The Bengals are hardly like your most comfortable shoes at 2-10 ATS on the road, after a +1 or better turnover margin outcome. The Jags have alternated covers all season and this sets up as ‘down’ week against a solid defensive team. Update – The influential money has continued to pour in on Jacksonville, currently listed at -5.5 or -6. The betting trend has flipped to Cincinnati and I find this a very tough call and will take the points.
Betting Trend – Was 77% backing Jacksonville, now 40%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Cincinnati
NFL – (459) ATLANTA at (460) CAROLINA 1:00 ET FOX *New*
Football bettors are not sold on the idea Carolina was the right choice as -1.5 point home favorite and they have been flipped to +2 against Atlanta. By the same token the Falcons are not the same offense as last season and with the Panthers much improved on defense, I can see them scoring enough and frustrating the Dirty Birds for the win.
Betting Trend – 67% backing Atlanta
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Carolina
NFL – (465) ARIZONA at (466) SAN FRANCISCO 4:05 ET FOX
With the trade of Jimmy Garoppolo, one could argue San Francisco’s two top quarterbacks are better than Arizona’s based on ability, not experience. Nevertheless, it is the Cardinals attracting the action and they are up from -1. to -2.5 and back to -2 on Tuesday night. While there is no logical reason to back the 49ers, Arizona has given up 33.3 PPG in their last trio of starts and this is the right spot for Niners to breakthrough. Update – The Redbirds have moved back to -2.5 against Frisco. Not sure how, but I believe the 49ers understand this is game they can win and are 9-2 ATS in division games.
Betting Trend – Was 52% backing San Francisco, now 40%
Doug’s VPID Take – San Francisco covers
NFL – (469) KANSAS CITY at (470) DALLAS 4:25 ET CBS *New* side
The Chiefs and Cowboys are third and fifth respectively in scoring in the NFL and defensively, they rank in the bottom half of the league in points allowed. You do not have to be the Secretary of the Treasury to determine this might be a higher scoring contest and the total has been lifted from 48 to 51, in a rather large move. Whether this is too much line movement will be determined, but because both teams do not commit many turnovers, the total jumping is not wrong with these offenses. Update – The total seems to have no boundary, moving up daily to 53.5. The other news is Dallas has been shoved from -1 to -2.5. The total has zero value left, making the OVER a very tiny play and I will lean with Cowboys who are 9-1 ATS off back to back road wins.
Betting Trend – Was 62% backing Over, now 83% and side action is 50-50
Doug’s VPID Take – Slight lean Over and lean Dallas
Public’s Favorite Sides Bets (11-13 ATS) in order: Eagles, Seahawks, Rams
Public’s Favorite Totals Bets (16-8 ATS) in order: Falcons/Panthers OVER, Lions/Packers OVER and Bengals/JaguarsOVER
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 245-252-10 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 152-120-4 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 382-339 -14 ATS