VPID NFL Football Line Moves and Free Picks for Week 8


We have two big totals alternations for line moves plus many other updates from Wednesday. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (17-10 run) to see what we are thinking. See you back here next week.

NFL – (251) MINNESOTA vs. (252) CLEVELAND  9:30am  ET  NFLN

With the Browns fading to black yet again, football bettors see zero value in even backing Cleveland as a “bad underdog” and have pushed them from +7.5 to +9.5. This could well go higher, with the Browns 1-9 ATS against teams with a winning record, losing by a whopping 16 points a contest. Update – Everyone is more than satisfied with this London contest and the Vikings have not budged.

Betting Trend – Was 84% backing Minnesota, now 83%

Doug’s VPID TakeMinnesota covers

NFL – (253) CHICAGO at (254) NEW ORLEANS  1:00 ET  FOX

The total sinking from 50 to 47.5 is threefold. It starts first with the Chicago defense being stronger than expected and the same goes for the New Orleans defense, playing close to preseason expectations. The other element is the Bears offense, which is very conservative with rookie QB Mitchell Trubisky. Looking the other way with the Saints 10-1 OVER taking on losing clubs. Update – A stray 47 points from a sportsbook or two, otherwise 47.5 is the number. In spite of the defenses, I think both offenses will do more than anticipated with the Saints winning 31-20.

Betting Trend – Was 82% backing Under, now 74%

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Over

NFL – (255) ATLANTA at (256) N.Y. JETS  1:00 ET  FOX  *New side*

Atlanta is scoring more than 12 points less than a year ago at 21.3 PPG and Jets, while being better than anticipated are at just 19.6 PPG. With this the total has dropped a digit from 47 to 46 and it is hard to argue with this since the Falcons are 9-1 UNDER after two or more consecutive losses against the spread the last three years. Update – The total has continued to drift downward, all the way to 44.5. The other element that has changed is Atlanta has been heated up from -4.5 to -6. This total is less attractive as an Under play now, thus I will lean that way. However, one of my power ratings has the Gang Green winning outright, so I will grab the points.

Betting Trend – Was 95% backing Under, now 65% and 63% on Atlanta

Doug’s VPID TakeLeans Under and New York

NFL – (257) CAROLINA at (258) TAMPA BAY  1:00 ET  FOX (side and total)

Two stumbling squads out of the NFC South, both desperate for a victory. Tampa Bay was released as a mere one-point home favorite and been shoved to -2.5 over Carolina. Both clubs have been more inconsistent then anticipated and what they will do to right the ship is unknown. This division has crazy in-division angles like the Panthers 11-5 ATS at Tampa. In addition, the total has climbed from 44 to 45.5, which in theory should favor the Bucs playing in higher scoring game. Yet Carolina is 12-3 OVER on the October road. Update – A buyback on Carolina to +1.5, with the total still going up, now at 46. On the Cats and Over.

Betting Trend – Was 52% backing Carolina and 88% on Over, now 74% and 80% respectively

Doug’s VPID TakeCarolina covers and Over

NFL – (259) SAN FRANCISCO at (260) PHILADELPHIA  1:00 ET  FOX  *New*

Though both teams have shown recent Over trends, the total in this NFC contest has gone south from 47.5 to 45. In terms of why, San Francisco’s offense is hardly dynamic at 17.6 PPG and with Philadelphia off a big division game, on a short week and at home, they might not be focused for winless opponent.

Betting Trend – 69% backing Under

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Under

NFL – (267) HOUSTON at (268) SEATTLE  4:05 ET  CBS

When 43 points was sent out for total on this nonconference clash, my original thought was this has Over possibilities. I was not the only having this opinion and the total was lifted to 46. This now seems like overreaction because the Seattle defense has started to play to talent level and they are 6-0 UNDER after three or more consecutive wins. Update – Starting to see a little weakening in total, with about 80 percent of sportsbooks now at 45.5. I will ride the Under.

Betting Trend – Was 75% backing Over, now 64%

Doug’s VPID TakePlay Under

NFL – (259) PITTSBURGH at (260) DETROIT  8:30 ET  NBC  *New*

For Sunday night the total is up two points to 46.5 which is curious. Why, the Pittsburgh defense is really dialed in and is 6-1 UNDER this season and 9-2 UNDER as road favorite. It would not be a stretch to think Detroit will not run the ball and Matthew Stafford has not been ultra sharp this season. With Steelers a run-first team these days that eats up the clock, I like the UNDER.

Betting Trend – 55% backing Under

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Under

NFL – Monday(273) DENVER at (274) KANSAS CITY  8:30 ET  ESPN

Nothing early, but by Wednesday the total had slid from 44.5 to 43 for this AFC West skirmish. Since scoring 42 against Dallas, Denver has tallied the same number, but it has taken them four additional games to match it. Kansas City continues to keep the scoreboard lights blinking, but is 11-2 UNDER at home after the first month of the season since 2015. Plus, the Broncos are 6-0 UNDER after a road loss in same timeframe. Update – Rock solid number all week and the betting trend is heavy one-way action.

Betting Trend – Was 96% backing Under, now 91%

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Under

Public’s Favorite Sides Bets (9-12 ATS) in order:

Public’s Favorite Totals Bets (14-7 ATS) in order: Niners/Colts OVER, Cards/Eagles OVER and Bills/Bengals OVER


Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 235-241-10 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 150-116-4 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 374-323 -14 ATS


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