VPID NFL Football Line Moves and Free Picks for Week 5


For line moves, all of the newest updates are on totals and we will go over the latest news on the games we had on Wednesday, with all the updates. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (277-239) to see what we are thinking. See you back here next week

NFL – (451) L.A. CHARGERS at (452) N.Y. GIANTS  1:00 ET  CBS

These laboring 0-4 squads are finding points hard to come by, while allowing points with relative ease. The latter is why the total was pushed up a point to 44.5. With how bad these offense are and with no running games to speak, consider the Chargers are 11-3 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 the last three seasons. UpdateNo movement on this total, which is fine by me since I liked the UNDER to begin with.

Betting Trend –  Was 85% backing Over, now 69%

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Under

NFL – (455) N.Y. JETS at (456) CLEVELAND  1:00 ET  FOX

Those betting football were not taking the sportsbooks bait of Cleveland at -2 and have flipped the winless Browns to +1. Just the fact that it’s Cleveland is enough for the change, but then add in the hottest team in the NFL (OK maybe not the hottest), the New York Jets, who have two more games than most anticipated. The matchup has bad numbers either way. #treacherous UpdateI am not surprised at all this mediocre contest has gone to a Pick, despite still rather heavy support on Gang Green. Nothing game, but I’ll for the Brownies to come out hot out of oven and big up first victory.

Betting Trend – Was 81% backing New York, now 74%

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Cleveland

NFL – (457) JACKSONVILLE at (458) PITTSBURGH  1:00 ET  CBS *New*

With neither offense really in high gear and Jacksonville 7th in the NFL in points allowed and Pittsburgh 2nd in the same category, the total has slipped from 44.5 to 43. With both teams relying more on the run than the pass, which keeps the clock moving, I am inclined to believe that is the correct way to go for this selection.

Betting Trend – 59% backing New Under

Doug’s VPID TakePlay Under

NFL – (461) SAN FRANCISCO at (462) INDIANAPOLIS  1:00 ET  FOX *New*

Despite a pair of weak offensive teams run by below average quarterbacks, the total has gained momentum and been elevated from 43 to 44.5. I can make a case both ways on both clubs, which makes a really hard selection. I will lean with the UNDER, only because of San Francisco has been pretty good on defense and they probably cannot take advantage of Indy’s porous defenders.

Betting Trend – 79% backing Over

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Under

NFL – (467) SEATTLE at (468) L.A. RAMS  4:05 ET  CBS

On Tuesday, the Rams jumped up from -1 to -2.5 and as I reported at another website, look for L.A. North to come back to at least original figure. That happened sooner than I anticipated because Los Angeles is already there. My reasoning was the Rams defense was the issue and instead this has lead to the total climbing from 46 to 47.5. My first thought was a lower score like the previous three battles have been, but you and I have to pay attention to Seattle being 9-2 OVER after gaining 450 or more yards. UpdateBetting markets satisfied with the total, which has not moved one iota. Talked to one sharp bettor I speak with regularly and he made compelling argument for Under, thus, he changed my mind a little bit from solid OVER play to a lean.

Betting Trend –  Was 53% backing Over, now 54%

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Over

NFL – (469) BALTIMORE at (470) OAKLAND  4:05 ET  CBS

With Derek Carr out, oddsmakers made this game a Pick. Here is where it gets fascinating. Both Baltimore and Oakland have dropped two in a row and deserved to lose. With the Raiders having to go with Buffalo-bust EJ Manuel at QB, how could the Ravens be moved to +2.5.? Has Joe Flacco fallen that far in the public’s eye? Update A whopping 85 percent of sportsbooks now have Oakland at a solid -3. I don’t like either quarterback and take the Raiders only because they are home.

Betting Trend –  Was 61% backing Baltimore, now 41%

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Oakland

NFL – (471) GREEN BAY at (472) DALLAS  4:25 ET  FOX

In the so-called “America’s Game of the Week” the total has dipped from 53.5 to 52.5 or even 52 at some locales. Not seeing it happen thanks to offenses that move the ball and score points, against a pair of defenses that have not shown to be overwhelming since their opening game. In past 11 matchups in Dallas with these two clubs, the OVER is 10-1. UpdateStill mostly at 52.5, with a couple Nevada books at 52 and offshore at 53. No matter, I am on the OVER.

Betting Trend –  Was 88% backing Over, now 64%

Doug’s VPID TakePlay Over

NFL – (473) KANSAS CITY at (474) HOUSTON  8:30 ET  NBC  *New*

In spite of Kansas City showing scoring prowess, the total on this AFC affair is heading downward from 47 to 45.5. Football bettors are convinced the defenses for both squads will make plays that stop drives and force punts or field goal attempts. I am inclined to think the same thing as teams like Houston with the total is between 42.5 and 49 points, after going over the total by more than 14 points in two consecutive games, are 31-6 UNDER, after the first month of the season.

Betting Trend – 72% backing Under

Doug’s VPID TakePlay Under


Public’s Favorite Sides Bets (6-6 ATS) in order: Lions, Vikings and Eagles

Public’s Favorite Totals Bets (8-4 ATS) in order: Niners/Colts OVER, Cards/Eagles OVER and Bills/Bengals OVER


Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 207-215-10 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 144-110-4 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 336-293-14 ATS


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