VPID NFL Football Line Moves and Free Picks for Week 4

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Only one new addition for line moves as the market place is satisfied with what they are seeing. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (265-224) to see what we are thinking. See you back here next week.

NFL – (253) CAROLINA at (254) NEW ENGLAND  1:00 ET  FOX

New England is averaging 33 PPG and the one good offense Carolina has faced this season was New Orleans and the Saints hung a 34 on the scoreboard in Charlotte. In spite of the Panthers offensive woes, the other scenario was enough to push the total from 47 to 49.The Patriots are 13-4 OVER against winning teams and Carolina is 11-3 OVER versus passing teams averaging seven or yards per attempt. UpdateAbout 40% of the sportsbooks have taken the total to 49.5 and while I hate to see higher number, still prefer the OVER.

Betting Trend – Was 92% backing Over, now 80%

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Over

NFL – (255) L.A. RAMS at (256) DALLAS  1:00 ET  FOX  (side and total)

The Los Angeles Rams might not be making many new fans in L.A. but football bettors are paying attention to them and they have blasted through key number and fallen from +8 to +6.5 point underdogs at Dallas. Having scored 40-plus points in two games will do that and the total has followed along now up two points to 48. The Cowboys have been a dreadful home favorite at 11-25 ATS since 2010, thus it makes sense. UpdateDallas has come down to -6 with total showing rising tendencies. I will say all books will be at 48.5 by Sunday. I am more inclined to play the OVER as I think both offenses will hit big plays, but have to lean with Cowboys at under seven points even with their brutal home spread record.

Betting Trend – Was 91% backing Los Angeles and 96% on Over, now 69% and 86% respectively

Doug’s VPID TakePlay Over, lean Dallas

NFL – (259) TENNESSEE at (260) HOUSTON  1:00 ET  CBS

Tennessee played extremely well in building a big lead over Seattle last Sunday and Houston ended up pushing New England for 60 minutes before falling. Those betting football must be thinking winning the game counted for more as they elevated Texans from +1 to +2 home underdogs versus the Titans. Tennessee does have the more experienced quarterback in Marcus Mariota and the better running game, yet they are 0-6 ATS in road tilts after gaining six or more yards per play in their previous game. UpdateWe have a bump on Tennessee to -2.5, but with Houston at home and needing to win to not fall two games behind the Titans already, I think the Texans are the call.

Betting Trend –  Was 76% backing Tennessee, now 74%

Doug’s VPID TakeHouston covers

NFL – (261) JACKSONVILLE at (262) N.Y. JETS 1:00 ET  CBS *New*

Both teams are coming off nice upset victories, but those betting football are thinking points will be more at a premium in dropping total from 40 to 38. I don’t believe this is where this total goes since the new Jacksonville running game will have success moving the ball and that opens up the play-action passing game. Both defenses are yawners and the Jaguars are 14-5 OVER when the line is +3 to -3.

Betting Trend – 72% backing Under

Doug’s VPID TakePlay Over

NFL – (265) PITTSBURGH at (266) BALTIMORE  1:00 ET  CBS  (side and total)

Both these rivals had rotten games last week, yet those betting football are still convinced Pittsburgh has the better club and moved them -2 to -3 at Baltimore. With hard hitting expected, the total has kept falling from 45 to 42.5. From this perspective the total appears correct with the Steelers 17-5 UNDER on the road and we will lean with Pittsburgh’s better offensive potential. UpdateSteelers holding steady at -3, with close to half the sportsbooks now down to 42. I like the UNDER for sure with struggling offenses, but hard call on the side.

Betting Trend –  Was 84% backing Pittsburgh and 95% on Under, now 69% and 91% respectively

Doug’s VPID TakePlay Under, slight lean Pittsburgh

NFL – (269) N.Y. GIANTS at (270) TAMPA BAY  4:05 ET  FOX

The New York Giants have no running game, but finally unleashed big play passing offense and with Tampa Bay having injuries all over its defense, the Buccaneers have slipped from -4 to -3. Besides those obvious factors, it would seem the key would be the how Tampa Bay does against the Giants defense. Consider the G-Men are 4-1-1 ATS in west Florida since 1998. UpdateBooks don’t want to come off of three and have moved the Tampa Bay from -3 (-110) to Even or -100, meaning they are attracting Giants money. At 0-3, New York has to win or season is over!

Betting Trend – 51% backing Tampa Bay, now 35%

Doug’s VPID TakeLean New York

NFL – (271) PHILADELPHIA at (272) L.A. CHARGERS  4:05 ET  FOX

Once again the frustration is mounting for the Chargers, being 0-3, and a displaced club without any home field edge. If the Carson Chargers were going to breakout, this would seem to be the game, a nonconference affair against a fair defense squad with a solid offense. Not the only one thinking this as the total is up from 46 to 47.5 and the Eagles are 8-1 OVER on the road off a non-cover. UpdateQuiet as can been on this total at 47.5 and I look for big day from both offenses and this total goes into the 50’s.

Betting Trend – 86% backing Over, now 84%

Doug’s VPID TakePlay Over

Public’s Favorite Sides Bets (4-5 ATS) in order: Bengals, Patriots and Chiefs

Public’s Favorite Totals Bets (5-4 ATS) in order: Lions/Vikings Over, Bengals/Browns OVER and Eagles/Chargers OVER

 

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 194-207-10 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 138-110-4 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 319-285-14 ATS

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