Let’s talk about the line moves in the NFL! Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (247-206) to see what we are thinking. See you back here next week.
NFL – (261) TENNESSEE at (262) JACKSONVILLE 1:00 ET CBS (side and total)
Jacksonville’s trouncing of Houston has not impressed everyone as they have been shoved from a Pick to +2 versus Tennessee. Conventional wisdom suggests the Titans still have the more complete team and should win, however, impossible to overlook they are 0-11-1 ATS on the AFC South road. Nonetheless, can you really trust the Jaguars also? Update – Most sportsbooks are back to Tennessee at -1.5, but it is worth noting that books noted for taking sharp action are at -1 or a Pick. #Hmmm The total has also slid from 43.5 to 42. I will still lean with the visitor, but will call for the Over with both teams scoring in the 20’s.
Betting Trend – Was 81% backing Tennessee and still is and 72& on Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Tennessee and Over
NFL – (263) CLEVELAND at (264) BALTIMORE 1:00 ET CBS (side and total)
Baltimore’s defense might end up being one the best in the NFL this season if they can stay healthy and that is the driving force behind the Ravens flying from -7 to -9 at home against Cleveland. Of course playing the Browns completes this equation and besides, Cleveland is 3-11 ATS after one or more consecutive defeats, losing by 11.9 points a game. The total has gone the other way, down from 41 to 39 because of the Ravens defense and presumed Browns inability to score. Update – Baltimore has been backed up to -8 and 75 percent of wagering outlets are still at 39 with the rest a half point lower. The Ravens defense is too strong and I will take them and lower score.
Betting Trend – Was 61% backing Cleveland and 68% on Over, 54% and 25% respectively
Doug’s VPID Take – Baltimore covers and Under
NFL – (267) NEW ENGLAND at (268) NEW ORLEANS 1:00 ET CBS (side and total)
So much for New Orleans defense being improved after being torched for 470 yards on Monday night at Minnesota. This got the attention of those betting football with New England coming off a loss and the Saints have climbed from +4.5 to +6.5. It is given the Patriots will play better and they are 19-6 ATS after being outgained by 150 or more total yards in their previous game. Update – Modest buyback in Pats to -6, however the total hopped from 54 to 56. Still like angry New England coverd and have to agree with Over
Betting Trend – Was 74% backing New England, now 84% and 90% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans New England and Over
NFL – (275) CHICAGO at (276) TAMPA BAY 1:00 ET FOX
Tampa Bay finally has their turn to play and they will face Chicago and they have the backing of those betting football, up from -5.5 to -7. What I wonder is as I talked about last week, favorites of a touchdown or more in their first game, since they are not typically a good wager and add in the Bears have already played a game. Update – This game needs to be shopped with adjusted line 6.5 to 7.5 when surveying books. I think Chicago stinks, but sometimes you just have to back a smelly dog in the right spot.
Betting Trend – Was 56% backing Tampa Bay, now 64%
Doug’s VPID Take – Chicago covers
NFL – (277) MIAMI at (278) L.A. CHARGERS 4:05 ET CBS *New*
Early in the week a lot of buzz about Chargers and home opener in their mini-me stadium and having advantage over Miami, who has yet to play a game. As week progressed, the thinking has changed and now the Bolts have been taken from -5 to -3.5. I will agree with the direction of this line move since I have made a lot money on the Fins being 26-14-2 ATS as non-division road underdogs.
Betting Trend – 59% backing Miami
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Miami
NFL – (287) GREEN BAY at (288) ATLANTA 8:30 ET NBC *New*
No surprise here the total has jumped two points to 55.5. Both games were OVER’s last year, so why won’t the same hold true again? Call me crazy, and most say that or worse, but I think defense will play a larger role and lean with a 27-24 final score.
Betting Trend – 57% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
Public’s Favorite Sides Bets (2-1 ATS) in order: Patriots, Titans and Cowboys
Public’s Favorite Totals Bets (2-1 ATS) in order: Cards/Colts UNDER, Pats/Saints OVER and Fins/Chargers OVER
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 181-191-10 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 132-99-4 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 292-265-14 ATS