Not sure if it is the holiday, but quieter than normal for line moves. No question all the Thursday games has something to do with it. Nevertheless, here is what we have for you in the NFL. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks to see what we are thinking this week. See you back here next week.
NFL – (251) CLEVELAND at (252) CINCINNATI 1:00 ET CBS
Cincinnati is 4-6 and talking about a playoff run. NFL bettors are not buying it and have lowered the Bengals from -9 to -8 even against the bungling and winless Browns. While we trust the sportsbooks line, because Cleveland turns the ball over so frequently, teams convert those into points, which is why Cincy gets the call in Battle of Ohio. Update – Have to admit, rather shocked to see the Bengals all the way down to -7.5 against the Browns. Not on board.
Betting Trend – Was 75% backing Cincinnati, now 78%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Cincinnati
NFL – (261) CAROLINA at (262) N.Y. JETS 1:00 ET FOX *New*
Wise Guys and the betting public are aligning themselves with Carolina, as the Panthers have been elevated from -4 to -5.5 and a few sportsbooks are up to -6. That is how I felt initially. When digging deeper into the numbers, I added up the scores of Carolina road games (4-1 SU) and they are only winning by 3.1 PPG and averaging a mere 20.6 PPG when outside Charlotte. While the more talented team is not in question, the Jets give great effort weekly and do their best to stick with their strengths and try and avoid their weaknesses. At home this season Gang Green is 3-2 and winning by 3.6 PPG and most importantly is 5-0 ATS. Call me nuts and many do, by I’ll take the Jets!
Betting Trend – 82% backing Carolina
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean New York
NFL – (263) TENNESSEE at (264) INDIANAPOLIS 1:00 ET FOX
Bettors have no faith in Tennessee. After winning four in row (1-2-1 ATS), the Titans were plastered by Pittsburgh 40-17. While Indianapolis is among the least talented squads in the AFC, Tennessee has still dipped from one point to -3.5 point favorites. Very difficult to back a team that is 4-13 ATS on the road. Update – This line has most held up, but I and seeing heavy juice on Tennessee at -3 (anywhere from-120 to -130) also. Cannot trust the Titans and Indy defense is improving.
Betting Trend – Was 63% backing Indianapolis, now 50-50
Doug’s VPID Take – Indianapolis covers
NFL – (265) SEATTLE at (266) SAN FRANCISCO 4:05 ET FOX *New*
The total in this NFC West showdown has a rising total, up two points to 45. I am not on board and here is why. I do not believe San Francisco has the pass-catchers to take advantage of depleted Seattle secondary. Coming off a bye week, the 49ers should be excited for a division game and I think there defense give a really good effort. Finally, in the last five years when the total jumps to 45 and the spread is 6.5, an UNDER occurs 83.3 percent of the time.
Betting Trend – 87% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
NFL – (271) DENVER at (272) OAKLAND 4:25 ET CBS
This rivalry conflict has gone from a national to regional contest on CBS. Denver has three quarterbacks that are not as good as journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Oakland offensive line could not block four snowmen let alone real humans and the play-calling is another article. No wonder the total fell from 44 to 43. However, both defenses are surrendering more than 24 points a game, making us go the other way. Update – The marketplace is more than satisfied, as 43 point has help up all week. I will still got the other way.
Betting Trend – Was 65% backing Under, now 57%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
NFL – (273) GREEN BAY at (274) PITTSBURGH 8:30 ET NBC *New*
The Sunday night total has climbed from 41.5 to 43.5 and given the current state of the Green Bay offense, this seems like more points for Pittsburgh. Let’s face it, the Steelers are only permitting 16.6 PPG and the chances of Brett Hundley surpassing that number are slim, unless you count Pittsburgh scoring after he throws interception or fumbles. The Steelers are 8-2 UNDER this season and are 22-12 UNDER after three or more consecutive wins.
Betting Trend – 52% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
Public’s Favorite Sides Bets (17-16 ATS) in order: Eagles, Panthers and Bengals
Public’s Favorite Totals Bets (20-13 ATS) in order: Titans/Colts OVER, Bears/Eagles OVER and Seahawks/49ers OVER
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 264-270-10 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 169-137-4 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 417-373 -14 ATS