VPID NFL Football Line Moves and Free Picks for Week 11


Big weekend of NFL football and we have the latest line moves. We will cover those and go back over what we discussed here on Wednesday.  Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks to see what we are thinking. See you back here next week

NFL – (451) DETROIT at (452) CHICAGO  1:00  ET  FOX

Football bettors are calling for a more defensive battle in the old Black and Blue division and lowered the total from 44 to 41. It does make sense because Chicago’s defense has been sound and they have offensive limitations. Initially thought this was wrong adjustment and changed my mind when discovering Detroit is 10-1 UNDER in road games after one or more victories. Update – The total has stayed at 41 and the wind could be blowing on the shores of Lake Michigan, making this defensive struggle.

Betting Trend – Was 61% backing Under, now 63%

Doug’s VPID TakePlay Under

NFL – (453) KANSAS CITY at (454) N.Y. GIANTS  1:00 ET CBS  *New Total*

With Ben McAdoo the New York coach until the end of the season according to ownership, that does not mean the Giants players will play harder. Still, those betting football thought the G-Men at +12 in New Jersey was high and lowered them to +10.5. If the Giants did not care about a taking a winnable game in Frisco, why would they play harder versus Kansas City? Update – Read reports of Giants coaches going over film with players and very honest discussion cleared the air. Not saying this is why New York went to +10, but worth noting. The total has gone up from 44 to 46 and that might suit K.C. more with better offense.

Betting Trend – Was 64% backing Kansas City, now 60% and 91% on Over

Doug’s VPID TakeLeans Kansas City and Over

NFL – (455) TAMPA BAY at (456) MIAMI  1:00  ET  FOX  *New*

Pick your poison in this Panhandle State redo from Week 1 cancellation with these two clubs. Bettors are siding with Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tampa Bay as the Bucs have been taken from +1.5 to a Pick or even -1 depending on the sportsbook. Nobody trusts Jay Cutler, Miami’s lack of offensive firepower and the fact the Dolphins are 2-10 ATS at home off three or more consecutive Over’s. Actually don’t like this game, but will have a slight lean with the Buccaneers because they have been a stellar November wager for years and the Fins are poor at home.

Betting Trend – 70% backing Tampa Bay

Doug’s VPID TakeSlight lean Tampa Bay

NFL – (459) LA. RAMS at (460) MINNESOTA  1:00  ET  FOX  *New*     

At least for me, the most anticipated game of the day and football bettors have made a statement about who they prefer and put both oars in the water with the Vikings, rowing them from -1.5 to -2.5. This game features two hot offenses and the Rams defense is improving every week and Minnesota’s was already very strong. Sharp action is split and while I am well aware the Vikings are 17-5 ATS at home the last three years, L.A. North is 5-0 SU on the road this year and will give them a look.

Betting Trend – 58% backing Minnesota

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Los Angeles

NFL – (465) WASHINGTON at (466) NEW ORLEANS  1:00 ET  FOX

Washington has conceded 29 or more points in four of their last six games, while New Orleans has averaged 35 PPG in their past five outings. This has helped push the total from 49 to 51. Because of the Saints defense, this is not as simple as it seems, nevertheless, the Redskins are 9-0 OVER after throwing for 300+ yards. Update – About 60 percent of books have pushed ahead to 51.5 in this NFC clash. Wise guys mostly split on this and despite the lack of value, I will still back the OVER.

Betting Trend – Was 91% backing Over, now 88%

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Over

NFL – (471) NEW ENGLAND vs. (472) OAKLAND  4:25 ET   CBS (side and total)

If you saw opening lines on this game and liked New England, hoped you took them and the total, because the Patriots are already up two digits to -7 and the total has climbed from 50 all the way to 53.5 points. With this a neutral site affair, it difficult to make a case for Oakland and to think their defense can slow Tom Brady. Update – Pats holding steady at -7, though I think that goes up on Sunday. But no limits on the total, now anywhere from 54.5 to 55.5. Like New England and a small lean on OVER at this price.

Betting Trend – Was 81% backing New England and 91% on Over, now 85% and 86%

Doug’s VPID TakeNew England covers, lean Over

NFL – (473) PHILADELPHIA at (474) DALLAS  8:30  ET  NBC  *New*       

 With Philadelphia off a bye and Dallas having what appears to be significant offensive issues, the Eagles have soared from -3.5 to -5. Besides these issues for the Cowboys, losing LB Sean Lee is another big loss. Not wild about the adjusted spread, but hard not to take the best team in the NFL against a depleted Dallas crew.

Betting Trend – 87% backing Philadelphia

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Philadelphia

 Public’s Favorite Sides Bets (14-16 ATS) in order: Eagles, Patriots and Chargers

Public’s Favorite Totals Bets (18-12 ATS) in order: Falcons/Seahawks OVER, Redskins/Saints OVER and Chiefs/Giants OVER


Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 257-262-10 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 163-134-4 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 401-365 -14 ATS


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