VPID NFL Football Line Moves and Betting Trends for Sept. 27th


Let’s move ahead to line moves in the NFL for Week 4 shall we. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (263-224) to see what we are thinking. See you back here Friday

NFL – (253) CAROLINA at (254) NEW ENGLAND  1:00 ET  FOX

New England is averaging 33 PPG and the one good offense Carolina has faced this season was New Orleans and the Saints hung a 34 on the scoreboard in Charlotte. In spite of the Panthers offensive woes, the other scenario was enough to push the total from 47 to 49.The Patriots are 13-4 OVER against winning teams and Carolina is 11-3 OVER versus passing teams averaging seven or yards per attempt.

Betting Trend – 92% backing Ove

NFL – (255) L.A. RAMS at (256) DALLAS  1:00 ET  FOX  (side and total)

The Los Angeles Rams might not be making many new fans in L.A. but football bettors are paying attention to them and they have blasted through key number and fallen from +8 to +6.5 point underdogs at Dallas. Having scored 40-plus points in two games will do that and the total has followed along now up two points to 48. The Cowboys have been a dreadful home favorite at 11-25 ATS since 2010, thus it makes sense.

Betting Trend – 91% backing Los Angeles and 96% on Over

NFL – (259) TENNESSEE at (260) HOUSTON  1:00 ET  CBS

Tennessee played extremely well in building a big lead over Seattle last Sunday and Houston ended up pushing New England for 60 minutes before falling. Those betting football must be thinking winning the game counted for more as they elevated Texans from +1 to +2 home underdogs versus the Titans. Tennessee does have the more experienced quarterback in Marcus Mariota and the better running game, yet they are 0-6 ATS in road tilts after gaining six or more yards per play in their previous game.

Betting Trend – 76% backing Tennessee

NFL – (265) PITTSBURGH at (266) BALTIMORE  1:00 ET  CBS  (side and total)

Both these rivals had rotten games last week, yet those betting football are still convinced Pittsburgh has the better club and moved them -2 to -3 at Baltimore. With hard hitting expected, the total has kept falling from 45 to 42.5. From this perspective the total appears correct with the Steelers 17-5 UNDER on the road and we will lean with Pittsburgh’s better offensive potential.

Betting Trend – 84% backing Pittsburgh and 95% on Under

NFL – (269) N.Y. GIANTS at (270) TAMPA BAY  4:05 ET  FOX

The New York Giants have no running game, but finally unleashed big play passing offense and with Tampa Bay having injuries all over its defense, the Buccaneers have slipped from -4 to -3. Besides those obvious factors, it would seem the key would be the how Tampa Bay does against the Giants defense. Consider the G-Men are 4-1-1 ATS in west Florida since 1998.

Betting Trend – 51% backing Tampa Bay

NFL – (271) PHILADELPHIA at (272) L.A. CHARGERS  4:05 ET  FOX

Once again the frustration is mounting for the Chargers, being 0-3, and a displaced club without any home field edge. If the Carson Chargers were going to breakout, this would seem to be the game, a nonconference affair against a fair defense squad with a solid offense. Not the only one thinking this as the total is up from 46 to 47.5 and the Eagles are 8-1 OVER on the road off a non-cover.

Betting Trend – 86% backing Over


Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 194-205-10 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 138-110-4 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 317-285-14 ATS


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