VPID Line Moves, Predictions and Free Picks for May 9/10

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We have all the latest line moves for Wednesday in the NBA Playoffs and the big leagues, plus tomorrow’s monster Game 7 in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (171-138-5 run) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here Friday.

NBA – (505) PHILADELPHIA at (506) BOSTON  8:00 ET  TNT

With Boston flipped from a +1.5 point underdog to a -1 point favorite, for the first time in this series they are listed as the favorite. That certainly is interesting seeing they are up 3-1 in the series and the only reason this is occurring is because the betting public has spoken with their cash. The Celtics defense has been sensational and the closest Philadelphia has come to shooting their normal percentage of 46.8% in this series was Game 3, when they were at 43.5%. The C’s get ready for Cleveland after tonight.

Betting Trend – 76% backing Boston

Doug’s VPID Take – Boston covers

MLB – (965) KANSAS CITY at (966) BALTIMORE  7:05 ET  FSKC, MASN

After Dylan Bundy’s historic “performance” last night, the suddenly homer-happy Royals have helped bump up the total from 9 to 9.5. Kansas City hit four bombs in the first inning and five altogether in last night’s 15-7 victory over the Orioles. The Birds went yard three times themselves on Tuesday. Let’s be honest, an Eric Skoglund (1-2, 6.84 ERA) vs. Andrew Cashner (1-4, 4.89) matchup just screams “RUNS”.

Betting Trend – 84% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over

MLB(967) BOSTON at (968) N.Y. YANKEES  7:05 ET  ESPN (side and total)

The Yankees are hotter than an Instagram model at 16-1, which is their finest 17-game stretch in 65 years. Yet, they are down 20 cents on the money line to -145 against hated Boston. The lion’s share of the line movement has to do with Rick Porcello (5-0, 2.14) being moved up a day to replace Dave Price and that fact that the right-hander is pitching even better than when he won the Cy Young in 2016. With this, the total has tumbled from 9 to 8.5. Masahiro Tanaka (4-2, 4.39) is rounding into form with a 2.41 ERA in his last three starts. No hero pick from me to go against the Bronx Bombers and I agree with the total change.

Betting Trend – 73% backing Boston and 53% on Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Leans New York and Under

MLB – (977) ATLANTA at (978) TAMPA BAY  7:10 ET FSSO, SUN

We have a flipped favorite in interleague play for tonight, as Atlanta has gone from -115 to +105. I disagree with this completely and here is why. After a lousy start, Julio Teheran (2-1, 3.65) has a 1.86 ERA over his past five outings and is pitching to his expected potential. Tampa Bay is still searching to find five competent starters and will try southpaw Ryan Yarbrough (2-1, 3.33) to try and slow the Braves lefty bats. It mostly worked for the Rays last night, but their offense failed them in 1-0 loss. Look for Tampa Bay to fall 1-10 after scoring and allowing three runs or less.

Betting Trend – 79% backing Atlanta

Doug’s VPID Take – Atlanta wins

NHL – Thursday(53) WINNIPEG at (54) NASHVILLE  8:05 ET  NBCSN

The money line has not moved much as we head to Game 7 of this series, but there has been action on the total. The opening total of Un5.5 (-110) had been juiced up to -125, favoring the Under. Besides the series being tied, so are the totals at three apiece. Conventional wisdom would suggest a Winnipeg win would result in an Over and a Nashville triumph would lead to an Under. Seeing the road team is 4-2, not sure what to think at the moment, but I know the Jets are 9-1 UNDER in road games revenging a loss of four goals or more and the Predators 11-2 UNDER at home off a win by three goals or more.

Betting Trend – 66% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 74-60-3 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 40-46-1 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 107-106-4 ATS

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