VPID Line Moves, Predictions and Free Picks for May 8th

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Let’s move ahead on line moves today with NBA Playoff action and the baseball games on the docket. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (169-136-5 run) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here tomorrow.

NBA – (505) UTAH at (506) HOUSTON  8:05 ET  TNT

Even if you include the outlier game in which Utah scored 116 points against Houston in Game 2 of this series, the Jazz has averaged 97.4 PPG in their last five contests. Coming off a pair of rough scoring games at home against the Rockets, oddsmakers are following that path and lowered the total from 209.5 to 208. Other than Donovan Mitchell, it is hard to imagine where the Utah points will come from and Houston is at 109.2 PPG in home playoff games. I’ll say the Rockets better 21-9 UNDER mark after covering three of their last four against the spread this season.

Betting Trend – 75% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under

MLB – (907) WASHINGTON at (908) SAN DIEGO  10:10 ET  MASN2, FSSD

Count me as no fan of the Nationals Jeremy Hellickson (0-0, 3.00 ERA), but I’m still flabbergasted Washington has sunk from -140 to a -120 favorite at San Diego, Sure Hellickson has an ERA over six against the Padres in eight starts. Nonetheless, the Friars Clayton Richard (1-4, 6.21) has an ERA of 7.34 since his Opening Day start. The left-hander has a solid 3.67 ERA vs. Washington, the lowest of any club he faced with a minimum of eight starts, but the Nats are on an 8-1 tear and win again.

Betting Trend – 88% backing Washington

Doug’s VPID Take – Washington wins

MLB(919) HOUSTON at (920) OAKLAND  10:05 ET  ATTH, CSCA

After losing five of six and scoring one run or less in that stretch, the World Series champs bats came alive and battered Oakland pitchers for 16 runs on Monday night. Baseball bettors are willing to take a chance on the Astros, moving them up 20 cents to -145, even if they are facing a smoking hot pitcher in Sean Manaea (4-3, 1.63). Houston counters with McCullers (4-1, 3.73), who has a 1.80 ERA in his past three starts. With the ‘Stros 20-5 in road games after scoring nine runs or more and the Athletics 10-27 after a loss by six or more runs, time to back Houston.

Betting Trend – 88% backing Houston

Doug’s VPID Take – Houston wins

MLB – (929) L.A.A. ANGELS at (930) COLORADO  8:40 ET FSW, ATTRM

After a slumbering start, Colorado’s Jon Gray (3-4,4.99) has pitched like an ace in his last two outings allowing one run in 13 innings (six total hits), striking out 17 and walking two. Yet those betting baseball see enough in the Angels Andrew Heaney (1-1, 5.31), who only permitted two earned runs in his past two starts covering 11 innings, with 11 punch-outs and only a pair of free passes surrendered. Consider that and the fact the team from Anaheim is 13-3 on the road this season and it starts to make sense why the Rockies are rolling downhill from -140 to -120. Both teams come in playing well, thus I’ll lean with the value of the visitor and back the Halos.

Betting Trend – 53% backing L.A.A.

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean L.A.A.

 

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 73-59-3 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 38-46-1 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 106-103-4 ATS

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