VPID Line Moves, Predictions and Free Picks for May 4-6

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A Monster weekend of sports betting activities, which includes the Kentucky Derby. The line moves will follow the action in the NBA Playoffs along with lots of baseball. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (165-133-5 run) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here next week.

NBA – (513) GOLDEN STATE at (514) NEW ORLEANS  8:05 ET  ESPN

If you thought the first two games in this series were wide open, evidently they will be even more so in the Big Easy. Both battles in this series have gone Over and the last contest closed at 229. This encounter is starting at 230 and has flown to 232. Before it’s home crowd, you know the Pelicans will be going full bore, but do they really expect to outscore Golden State? Look for New Orleans and the Warriors to play just enough defense and know Golden State is 26-10 UNDER on the road when the total is 230 or higher.

Betting Trend – 53% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under

NBA – (515) HOUSTON at (516) UTAH  10:35 ET  ESPN  (side and total)

Utah astonished basketball fans with an upset of Houston on the road in Game 2. How they did it was also flabbergasting, outscoring the Rockets on offense, not because of their defense. Those betting basketball are not convinced there will be more points than anticipated and they also prefer the top seed. The Rockets have flown from -3.5 to -4.5 and the total has slid from 207 to 205.5. The thinking has to be the Jazz defense will be stronger at home, but I believe this is too low a figure. I will back Houston who plays with more purpose and is 19-7 ATS away after allowing 115 points or more.

Betting Trend – 66% backing Houston and 85% on Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Houston and Over

MLB (901) PHILADELPHIA at (902) WASHINGTON  7:05 ET  CSP, MASN

Washington just swept Pittsburgh in four at home and plays host to another Keystone State team this weekend. Though Philadelphia has the better season record, they have lost three straight series, which is why the Phillies slipping from +135 to +120 is puzzling. I know the analytics crew hates Gio Gonzalez (3-2, 2.67 ERA) and he’s 4-11 if the Nationals have won three or more in a row. (Phillies record). But I still like the lefty and see him taking down the slumping Phils in this divisional confrontation.

Betting Trend – 94% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Philadelphia

MLB – CHIC. CUBS (+110) at ST. LOUIS (-130) (Series Betting)

In looking at all three starting pitching matchups, they are pretty even and I think St. Louis gets the nod because they are at home. The premise appears correct, but I can see the Cubs hanging around in Games 2 and 3 in particular and since they have the better bullpen, pulling those contests out. Chicago has also won 12 of last 19 at Busch Stadium.

Betting Trend – 58% backing St. Louis

Doug’s VPID Take – Chicago wins

MLB – L.A.A. ANGELS (-140) at SEATTLE (+120) (Series Betting)

These AL West rivals and Houston start the weekend just one- half game apart in the standings. Frankly, surprised to see the Angels this large a favorite because of Garrett Richards vs. Mike Leake matchup should be fairly tight. The Halos with Tyler Skaggs should have a Game 2 advantage, with Felix Hernandez going up against baseball’s most unpredictable pitcher – undecided – at this time in the series finale. This will depend on Ohtani’s tweaked ankle. The Mariners are on a 7-2 move, but hard not to back the Angels who are a heavenly 11-2 on the road.

Betting Trend – 53% backing L.A.A.

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean L.A.A.

NBA – Saturday – (701) BOSTON at (702) PHILADELPHIA   5:05 ET  ESPN

This is starting to remind me of a gambler who bets black 10 straight times in roulette, loses each time, does so again and wins and says “I knew black would hit!” The first two games in this series the total was sent downward and the OVER ended up being correct. This time the sportsbooks sent out a 208 total and the betting public has lowered it again, now down to 206.5. I’m not saying a lower score is not possible, but Boston is on an 11-2 OVER run and Philly is 6-3 OVER of late. Riding the tide.

Betting Trend – 66% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over

 

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 69-57-3 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 38-45-1 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 103-101-4 ATS

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