The NBA Finals get cranked up tonight and we have the latest line moves. Plus a total of four line moves on the diamond. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (198-160-3 run) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here tomorrow.
NBA – (501) CLEVELAND at (502) GOLDEN STATE 9:05 ET ABC
Cleveland opened as gigantic road underdogs in The Finals, at -11.5. Within the hour of the release, the Cavs were at +12 and when it appeared Kevin Love was “iffy” to play, the adjusted number was +13. This is largely unexplored territory since the last time we saw a number like this was 2001 when the Lakers were 12.5-point home favorites over Philadelphia and lost in OT. (L.A. won the next four games) I admit, I’m not betting this game, but if the Cavaliers are going to engineer a close game on the road, this is the perfect opportunity if Golden State is unfocused.
Betting Trend – 57% backing Golden State
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Cleveland
MLB – (953) PITTSBURGH at (954) ST. LOUIS 7:15 ET ATT-P, FSMW (side and total)
Both these NL Central combatants are off division series losses and want to win the opener of their four-game series. St. Louis was released as a -165 home favorite, but has since crumbled to -140. That is fascinating since Cardinals starter Jack Flaherty (2-1, 2.15 ERA) bested Pittsburgh righty Trevor Williams (5-3, 3.43) last Saturday on the road 4-1. I’m inclined to take the value with the Redbirds with Williams having an ERA over 7 versus the Cards. In addition, the total moved up from 8 to 8.5 and I can support this with the Pirates, 9-0 OVER after scoring and allowing three runs or less this season. (Average score 11.6 total runs)
Betting Trend – 68% backing St. Louis and 64% on Under
Doug’s VPID Take – St. Louis wins and Over
MLB – (965) N.Y. YANKEES at (966) BALTIMORE 7:05 ET YES, MASN
Sonny Gray (3-4, 5.98) is either in decline or finds the pressure of wearing the pinstripes too much as he continues to struggle. He will face Andrew Cashner (2-6, 5.07), who continues to be a starting pitcher in the big leagues in spite of a 44-70 career record. Little wonder the total jumped from 10 to 10.5. Though the Bronx Bombers are 10-2 OVER having won three of four, Cashner has allowed only five earned runs in four starts against New York, pitching at least six innings each time. Also, the Orioles are 9-1 UNDER as a home underdog of +100 or higher this season.
Betting Trend – 65% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
MLB – (571) TEXAS at (572) SEATTLE 10:10 ET FSSW, RTNW
Last night’s AL West battle saw a sinking total and the two teams combined to score 13 runs. Will we see a repeat tonight? Thursday total has really taken a tumble, down a full run from 8.5 to 7.5. The Rangers Mike Minor (4-3, 5.63) is as ineffective as usual, but Mariners Wade LeBlanc (0-0, 2.70) has been a huge surprise. Texas has scored 16 runs the last two nights in Seattle and I’m sorry, LeBlanc is not this good and the Rangers are 14-5 OVER as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season.
Betting Trend – 75% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 95-85-6 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 40-50-1 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 129-133-7 ATS