With Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Finals quiet for line moves, we are all in for baseball today. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (196-158-3 run) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (909) SAN FRANCISCO at (910) COLORADO 8:40 ET NBC-BA, ATT-RM
Colorado goes for the series sweep tonight, but the betting action is on the total, which is headed a curious direction. The opening total of 11.5 has slid to 11 or to even 10.5 at some sportsbooks. I didn’t notice anything with the weather in Denver and Derek Holland (2-6,4.73 ERA) and Jon Gray (5-6, 5.40) would hardly be described as reliable this season. In spite of what seems obvious, the Rockies are 15-5 UNDER at home when the total is 10 or higher and 13-3 UNDER as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season.
Betting Trend – 62% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
MLB – (913) PHILADELPHIA at (914) L.A. DODGERS 10:10 ET CSP, SNLA
Ross Stripling (2-1, 1.74) was asked to fill the large shoes of Clayton Kershaw when he went on the DL and he has taken the responsibility to heart. His ERA is Kershaw-ish and he will face the Phillies Zach Eflin (1-1, 3.27), who has also mostly pitched well. The line movement is suggesting a lower scoring affair, as it has dropped from 8 to 7.5. You can decide what you like since Eflin is 11-2 OVER as a road underdog of +100 or higher and Stripling is 10-0 UNDER as a home favorite of -110 or higher since 2016. I’ll give a nod to the lower score.
Betting Trend – 69% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Under
MLB – (925) TAMPA BAY at (926) OAKLAND 10:05 ET FS-SUN, CSCA
After a sparkling start to the season, the A’s Sean Manaea (5-5, 3.34) has an ERA of 7.98 in his past three starts, which evidently is making some baseball bettors anxious. Oakland has plummeted from -170 to -135, but Manaea is not the only reason. The Athletics offense has gone colder than Roseanne’s TV future, averaging 1.8 RPG over their past eight games. Also, Tampa Bay is on a strong 11-4 run and won its last four contests. I have to go with the hotter club here with the Rays.
Betting Trend – 65% backing Oakland
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Tampa Bay
MLB – (527) TEXAS at (528) SEATTLE 10:10 ET FSSW, RTNW
Believe me when I say Texas starter Matt Moore (1-5, 7.99) has nothing to do with the total falling from 8 to 7.5, as you can see tell by his ERA. No, the real reason is James Paxton (4-1, 3.10), who has a tiny 1.42 ERA this month. Though Moore is 12-1 OVER in road night games since last year, Seattle’s without a couple key bats and has averaged 2.8 RPG in the last nine ballgames. Given Moore’s woes and the Mariners being 8-0 OVER as a favorite of -200 or more the last three seasons, I’ll go that direction.
Betting Trend – 58% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 94-83-5 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 40-50-1 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 128-131-6 ATS