For today and this weekend, we have a boatload of free picks, mostly in baseball, but in the NBA Playoffs as well. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (191-155 -2 run) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here next week and have a great Memorial Day weekend.
MLB – (953) ST. LOUIS at (954) PITTSBURGH 7:05 ET FSMW, ATT-P (side and total)
With neither of these NL Central teams playing all that well, it was a bit surprising to see the Cardinals fly off from -110 to -125 at Pittsburgh. I’m not really sure what the Cards John Gant (1-1, 4.67 ERA) has over Joe Musgrove, who is in his Pirates debut since coming over from Houston and being on the DL to this point. I cannot find fault with the total rising from 8.5 to 9 and the Bucs are 11-1 OVER at home after a one-run loss. On the side, just a lean with Pittsburgh.
Betting Trend – 55% backing Pittsburgh, 69% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Pittsburgh and Over
MLB – (969) HOUSTON at (970) CLEVELAND 7:10 ET ATT-H, STO (side and total)
After grabbing a 2-0, Cleveland was humbled, as Houston scored the final eight runs of the game on Thursday night in the blowout. The Indians will send out their ace Corey Kluber (7-2, 2.36) and they hope he can go close to nine innings since the Tribe’s bullpen is the worst in the AL. Baseball bettors are uncertain about Cleveland and dropped them from -150 to -125 home favorites and raised the total from 7 to 7.5. Dallas Keuchel (3-6, 3.43) take the ball for Houston and he is 4-1 with a 2.30 ERA against Cleveland. Though I really like Kluber, the Astros are 23-6 after a victory by six or more runs and I think they do some damage against the Indians pen.
Betting Trend – 52% backing Houston, 68% on Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Houston and Over
MLB – (975) TORONTO at (976) PHILADELPHIA 7:05 ET SNET, NBC-10 (side and total)
Despite Toronto being on a miserable 2-9 skid, they were lowered at sportsbooks from +130 to around +105 at Philadelphia. Yes, the Jays Sam Gaviglio did not give up a run in his 2018 starting debut last Sunday, but he only got the start because of Toronto injuries. Zach Eflin (1-0, 1.56) has made three very good trips to the mound this season and he faces a Blue Jays batting order that scoring 3.1 runs per game in their last seven tries. I’ll bet on the Phillies and agree with the total climbing from 8.5 to 9, with Toronto 10-2 OVER in interleague road encounters.
Betting Trend – 78% backing Philadelphia, 57% on Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Philadelphia wins, lean Over
MLB – ARIZONA (+105) at OAKLAND (-125) (Series Betting)
Arizona has lost 13 of 14, including seven straight and has not scored more than four runs in any game in that stretch. So why would I think they could take series against Oakland, who’s won seven of 10? The D-Backs are not as bad as they playing and eventually will come out of this. Patrick Corbin and Zack Greinke give them a solid chance to win the bookend contests and the A’s are only 12-11 at home this season.
Betting Trend – 56% backing Oakland
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Arizona
MLB – MINNESOTA (+135) at SEATTLE (-155) (Series Betting)
My immediate reaction was Seattle no problem, especially with James Paxton pitching in the series opener. With Robinson Cano and Dee Gordon out, the Mariners offense has to eventually be hurting. Plus, I prefer Minnesota starters Jake Odorizzi and Jose Berrios over Wade Leblanc and Mike Leake. I don’t mind taking a flyer on the Twins at this price for the series and it’s not a larger bet because of the Twinkies generally suspect pen to date.
Betting Trend – 63% backing Seattle
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Minnesota
NBA – Saturday – (509) HOUSTON at (510) GOLDEN STATE 9:05 ET TNT (side and total)
It’s official Chris Paul is out for Game 6. With this Houston has gone from +10.5 to +12 and the total has slid from 213.5 to 212. I’m not sure how you bet the side and would recommend passing, but the UNDER still remains inviting even if it down a hard to fathom 15.5 from Game 4 (closed at 227.5).
Betting Trend – 70% backing Golden State, 65% on Over (these could be very different by Saturday)
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under, passing on side
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 88-79-5 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 40-50-1 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 119-130-6 ATS