For line moves, we tackle the excitement of a Stanley Cup Game 7, with the winner advance to the Cup Finals. We also have three MLB contests to talk about and Thursday’s early line movement in the NBA. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (188-154 -1 run) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here Friday
NHL – (53) WASHINGTON at (54) TAMPA BAY 8:05 ET NBCSN
Its winner takes all in Game 7 of the Eastern Finals. Almost three-quarters of betting tickets are on Tampa Bay being on home ice, but that is not where the line move is at most books. The total is where the action is, as the UNDER 5.5 has been shifted 20 cents on the juice from -110 to -130. This makes perfect sense as the Lightning is 7-0 UNDER in the 7th game of a playoff series and Washington is 8-1 UNDER in the same exact scenario.
Betting Trend – 52% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
MLB – (955) ATLANTA at (956) PHILADELPHIA 7:05 ET FSSO, CSP
This is the series finale and this is already the 12th time these two best clubs in the NL East are meeting. Atlanta holds a 7-4 edge and goes after its fourth series victory this year over Philadelphia. In spite of a pitching matchup featuring Jake Arrieta (3-2, 2.82 ERA) vs.
Luiz Gohara (first start of 2018), the Phillies have fallen from -150 to -120. The Braves bring a lot to this encounter with their 11-2 record as a road underdog of +100 to +150 this season. However, I like the bulldog in Arrieta off a subpar outing and he is 4-1 against the Bravos with 2.76 ERA against them (team’s record). The Phillies earn the victory.
Betting Trend – 69% backing Philadelphia
Doug’s VPID Take – Philadelphia wins
MLB – (961) COLORADO at (962) L.A. DODGERS 10:10 ET ATTRM, SNLA
The Dodgers are showing a pulse as they have won five of six and thanks to Arizona faltering, if they can stay hot, they can get back to .500 and start building from there. In the series closer with Colorado, they have earned enough faith from bettors to be taken from -150 to -170. Kenta Maeda (3-3, 3.98) is the rare healthy starter for skipper Dave Roberts, but he’s been unpredictable, yet is 3-2 against the Rockies with a solid 2.98 ERA. Nothing unpredictable about the Rocks Kyle Freeland (4-4, 3.17) this month with a sterling 1.35 ERA and a 3-0 record. With L.A. 9-14 at home and Colorado 7-2 as an underdog of +150 or more this season (and 19-12 on the road), the Rockies are worth your consideration.
Betting Trend – 51% backing L.A. Dodgers
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Colorado
MLB – (967) L.A.A. ANGELS at (968) TORONTO 7:07 ET FSW, SNET
After a surprising start, the Angels have lost eight of 11 and its offense has dried up like Sears and J.C. Penny retail stores, scoring 2.6 RPG in this stretch. With this in mind, it was eyebrow-raising to see the total climb from 8.5 to 9. The Halos left-hander Tyler Skaggs (3-3, 2.88) has been solid all season and he has good numbers against Toronto. The Blue Jays Aaron Sanchez (2-4, 4.47) has not been great this season, but the way the Angels are swinging the bats, he could have a good outing. Let’s back the lower score with Anaheim 15-5 UNDER in road games after batting .200 or worse over a 3-game span and Sanchez 11-2 UNDER as an underdog of +100 or higher.
Betting Trend – 69% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
NBA – Thursday – (507) GOLDEN STATE at (508) HOUSTON 9:05 ET TNT
Off the Rockets alarming Game 4 upset at Oracle, oddsmakers made Houston a one-point home favorite. Hoops bettors disagreed and flipped Golden State to -1 faves, thinking revenge is best served cold. This could change again by game time, but I wonder about the Warriors injury’s at the moment and the confidence gained by the Rockets with the win and coming back home. At the moment, Houston is my lean.
Betting Trend – 70% backing Golden State
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Houston
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 86-77-4 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 40-50-1 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 117-128-5 ATS