VPID Line Moves, Predictions and Free Picks for May 18-20

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Besides the big Preakness Stakes, we here at line moves are following the changes in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, NBA Playoffs and of course baseball. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (180-149-1 run) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here Tuesday.

NHL – (61) WINNIPEG at (62) VEGAS  9:05 ET  NBCSN

Just like in Game 3, there is skepticism about Vegas winning and they slipped from -130 to -115. Have to hand it to the Golden Knights, their style of play exposes the other team’s weaknesses and they have neutralized Winnipeg’s speed in the last two contests. You also have to consider how well Marc-Andre Fleury is playing and the fact the Jets are 2-8 against starting goalies saving 93% or more of shots against this season.

Betting Trend – 53% Backing Vegas

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Vegas

MLB – (915) OAKLAND at (916) TORONTO  7:05 ET  CSCA, SNET (side and total)

Oakland is a pesky 4-3 on this AL East road trip and they have scored at least five runs in five of those games. The only pitchers that have held them down are Luis Severino and Chris Sale, which is not a shocker. With this, the A’s have tumbled from +140 road underdogs to +110 at Toronto in the second game of the series and the total has also been lowered from 10 to 9.5. Given we have Oakland’s Brett Anderson (0-2, 8.16 ERA) vs. the Blue Jays right-hander Marco Estrada (2-3, 5.32), the OVER would seem to have real possibilities. Concerning the money line, I’ll take a flyer on the A’s with Toronto 7-17 after a game with a combined score of 15 runs or more.

Betting Trend – 60% backing Toronto and 53% on Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over, Lean Oakland

MLB – (925) TAMPA BAY at (926) L.A.A. ANGELS  10:05 ET  FS-SUN, FSW (side and total)

Tampa Bay has caught fire on the road, winners of four in a row and five of six. That is why it is odd to see them rising like gas prices in Anaheim from +115 to +135. Sure, Blake Snell (4-3, 3.12) had a rough go in his last outing, but prior to that, he had posted six quality starts. Besides, it not like the Angels Nick Tropeano (1-2, 3.64) is an All-Star. The Halos are 4-14 in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.40 or better since last season. With Mike Trout mired in the worst slump of his career at 0-19, the Angels are averaging 3.0 RPG in their last seven tries and the total was lowered from 8.5 to 8. I will go contrarian with the Rays is 7-0 OVER as a road underdog of +100 to +150 this season.

Betting Trend – 70% backing L.A.A. and 54% on Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Tampa Bay, Play Over

MLB – ARIZONA (+130) at N.Y. METS (-150) (Series Betting)

Man, this is a tough choice. Arizona’s offense has gone colder than the tap beer at the “Twin Peaks” restaurant chain. In the opener, Jacob deGrom makes sense if he can last into the 7th inning, but another short stint limits the Mets chances of winning. Patrick Corbin should be better than Steven Matz if he receives any offensive support. The series finale is coin flip with Zack Greinke taking on Noah Syndergaard. Here is to hoping the Snakes hit enough to win twice. The D-Backs are 11-2 in most recent meetings.

Betting Trend – 63% backing New York

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Arizona

MLB – MILWAUKEE (+120) at MINNESOTA (-140) (Series Betting)

These Midwestern neighbors used to be in the same AL division but instead play annually in interleague action these days. The middle game of the series showcases two young starters who look good, making that a tossup for me. However, I like Minnesota with Kyle Gibson and Jake Odorizzi in the other battles, though I fully understand the Twins inferior bullpen could be my undoing.

Betting Trend – 53% backing Minnesota

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Minnesota

NBA – Saturday – (703) BOSTON at (704) CLEVELAND  8:35 ET  ESPN

While many consider Cleveland dead in the water, there has been enough money by particular bettors to push the Cavaliers from -5 to -6. Enough gamblers are ignoring the Celtics 11-3 ATS postseason record compared to the Cavs at 5-8 ATS, having faith in LeBron James and the home crowd. If Cleveland is going to show their pride, it would make sense this would be that encounter they play well and let’s not lose sight Boston is just 1-4 and 2-3 ATS on the playoff road. Myself, I would wait and see if the Cavs at -6 drop lower again before backing them.

Betting Trend – 60% backing Boston

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Cleveland

 

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 81-68-4 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 40-50-1 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 113-120-5 ATS

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