VPID Line Moves, Predictions and Free Picks for May 16

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For Hump Day, the NBA action is quiet when it came to line moves, but not so on the ice or baseball diamonds. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (177-147-1 run) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here Friday.

NHL – (3) WINNIPEG at (4) VEGAS  9:05 ET  NBCSN

Thus far in the Stanley Cup Conference Finals, the home ice has meant next to nothing. Of the five games played, only once has the home team won. No question that plays into how bettors perceive what could occur and Vegas has busted like catching a face card when holding 12 playing blackjack. The Golden Knights opened at around -145 and are down to -125. Though VGK has dominated the last four periods, as witnessed in Washington last night, anything is possible and Winnipeg is 27-4 when playing with revenge.

Betting Trend – 72% backing Vegas

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Winnipeg

MLB – (905) L.A. DODGERS at (906) MIAMI  7:10 ET  SNLA, FSFL (side and total)

Six weeks ago, the chances of the Dodgers being one game ahead of Miami in the standings were about the same as the Boston Celtics being up 2-0 in the Eastern Conference Finals. (Look how that has played out) Yet here we are and whatever goodwill Los Angeles had earned from playing in last year’s World Series has evaporated. The Dodgers are down 15 cents to -160 vs. the Marlins. L.A. will start Walker, not Ferris Buehler (2-1, 1.64 ERA), who’s been terrific. Buehler hopes the L.A. bats don’t take off another day since they have averaged a pathetic 3.1 RPG the last week. The Fish counter with  Caleb Smith (2-4, 3.63) and he hopes his offense performs better than the 3.5 RPG they have tallied all year. This lack of offense has sent the total sinking from 7.5 to 7. For my money, the total is the better choice with the Dodgers  8-0 OVER when the total is 7 or less this season. On the side, just the slightest of leans with Miami because of the value.

Betting Trend – 69% backing Los Angeles and 62% on Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over and slight lean Miami  

MLB – (907) CHIC. CUBS at (908) ATLANTA  7:35 ET  WGN, FSSO

The Cubs scored twice in the ninth to escape with a 3-2 win at Atlanta last night. Oddsmakers sent Chicago out as a -125, but because Tyler Chatwood  (3-3, 3.35) has walked 32 in 37 2/3 innings and is facing a treacherous Braves lineup that could exploit him, the home team is now a -110 favorite. Nevertheless, Brandon McCarthy (4-2, 5.58) has been brutal of late, lit up for 14 runs in his past two starts. Though the Bravos are 11-4 after a loss, the Cubs played with more fire last night and win another down south.

Betting Trend – 52% backing Chicago

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Chicago

MLB – (917) HOUSTON at (918) L.A.A. ANGELS  9:40 ET  ATTH, FSW

It is the rubber game of the series and thus far we have seen two excellent games. Houston was the -160 betting favorite with Justin Verlander (4-2, 1.21) toeing the rubber against Garrett Richards (4-1, 4.08). Despite the Angels mediocre 11-13 record at the Big A, the Astros have fallen out of orbit and have crashed at -130. Both starters have basically .500 records versus the other team, but Verlander is tough and the ‘Stros are 15-7 on the road and I’ll lean that direction.

Betting Trend – 76% backing Houston

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Houston 

 

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 79-65-4 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 40-50-1 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 110-118-5 ATS

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