VPID Line Moves, Predictions and Free Picks for May 15

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Because of timing, we will have to pass on the line moves with Colorado and San Diego this afternoon, but we still have four others in baseball and tonight’s big NBA contest. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (176-143-1 run) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here tomorrow

NBA – (701) CLEVELAND at (702) BOSTON  8:35 ET  ESPN

Frankly, there is not anyone who does not believe Cleveland and LeBron James will not play better in Game 2 and that is the driving force for the total to rise from 202.5 to 204. I’m completely on board with it and besides, Boston is 14-3 OVER in home playoff games the last two seasons.

Betting Trend – 86% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over

MLB – (955) CHIC. CUBS at (956) ATLANTA  7:35 ET  CSN-C, FSSO

With Yu Darvish coming off the DL and sporting a 0-3 record and 6.00 ERA, baseball bettors have confidently moved the Cubs and Braves total from 8.5 to 9. These two teams have the top scoring offenses in the NL at over 5 runs a game and Atlanta has tallied 20 runs against Cubs pitching in three games, with Chicago at 19. Mike Foltynewicz (3-2, 3.21 ERA) has thrown well again this season but against Cubs hitters, he has a 7.36 ERA. Though Darvish is 15-4 UNDER recently when the total is 8.5 to 10, I’m not sure this will happen.

Betting Trend – 52% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over

MLB – (965) TAMPA BAY at (966) KANSAS CITY  8:15 ET  FS-SUN, FSKC (side and total)

I could have picked another contest, but because this had side and totals action, I went that direction. Kansas City has slid like yesterday’s stock market from -125 home favorites to -110, with the total going the other direction from 9 to 9.5. Tampa Bay took the series opener 2-1 last night, which was only their fourth win at “The K” in 20 tries. Interesting to note those betting baseball have little faith in the Royals Ian Kennedy (1-4, 4.61) facing Anthony Banda, who is making his first major league start. I’ll side with K.C. with the Rays 0-7 after a game with a combined score of four runs or less and take the UNDER with Kennedy usually an effective home pitcher and both teams averaging a combined 8.2 RPG on offense.

Betting Trend – 67% backing Tampa Bay and 52% on Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Kansas City and Under

MLB – (977) TORONTO at (978) N.Y. METS  7:10 ET  SNET, SNY

After shooting out of the gate like American Pharoah, the Mets look like a plow horse at just one-game over .500. Even Noah Syndergaard (2-1, 3.09) is not inspiring much confidence as New York has tumbled from -180 to -155 against Toronto. The Mets offense has gone colder than a beer buried in ice at the bottom of a cooler in scoring 2.4 RPG in their last seven tries. If the Metropolitans offense is going to bust out, the Jays Jaime Garcia (2-2, 5.40) would seem the perfect opponent. Besides, Toronto offense has not been sterling either at 2.9 RPG in their past seven contests.

Betting Trend – 72% backing New York

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean New York

 

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 77-63-4 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 40-49-1 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 108-115-5 ATS

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