VPID Line Moves, Predictions and Free Picks for May 11/13

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It’s Mother’s Day weekend and Line Moves gives a big shout out to all moms everywhere. For this weekend we have action in the NBA, NHL and MLB. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (174-141-5 run) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here next week

NHL – (505) WASHINGTON at (506) TAMPA BAY  8:05 ET  NBCSN

The last two regular season meetings between these Eastern Conference finalists had a total of 6 set by the sportsbooks and they ended up 1-0-1. This is the number we have now for Game 1, but we do have movement on the juice. The opening 6 (-110) has been moved to Under 6 (-125). I’m not seeing it, though I concur 6 is a strong number. With Washington 7-0 OVER on the road after permitting one or fewer goals and Tampa Bay 14-5 OVER after a win by two or more goals, I’ll lean that direction.

Betting Trend – 55% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over

MLB – (951) N.Y. METS at (952) PHILADELPHIA  7:05 ET  SNY, CSP

Color me bewildered. Philadelphia just swept San Francisco in a four-game home series, is taking on a Mets club that is in a 1-8 free fall and has Jake Arrieta (3-1, 3.15 ERA) pitching. Yet, the Phillies have fallen from -170 to -145! And it’s not like New York is pitching Jacob deGrom, Dwight Gooden or even Tom Seaver, it’s Steven Matz (1-3, 4.23)! Yes, the Metropolitans have won 13 of 19 in Philly, but they won’t tonight!

Betting Trend – 91% backing Philadelphia

Doug’s VPID Take – Philadelphia wins

MLB – (973) SEATTLE at (974) DETROIT  7:10 ET  RSNW, FSD 

Detroit is back home after a dismal 2-5 road trip and baseball bettors do not like their chances of starting this series with a W. The Tigers have been pushed from +120 to +140 or higher. Though Seattle does have the better squad, Detroit’s Matt Boyd (1-3, 3.00) does have a 1.47 ERA in three home starts. It is a fact the Tigers lineup is makeshift due to injuries, nonetheless, Mariners left-hander Marco Gonzales (3-2, 5.19) is hardly special and Detroit is scoring 6.4 RPG against port-siders.

Betting Trend – 71% backing Seattle

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Detroit

MLB – SAN FRANCISCO (+140) at PITTSBURGH (-160) (Series Betting)

After hanging in pretty well and starting their 10-game road trip with a sweep at Atlanta, San Francisco lost four times at Philadelphia. Now they make the journey to the other side of the Keystone State to take on the Pirates and are underdogs. When one considers offense, home/road bullpen differentials and expected pitching matchups of Andrew Suarez vs. Jameson TaillonJeff Samardzija vs. Chad Kuhl and Derek Holland vs. Ivan Nova, the Bucs are the series choice.

Betting Trend – 71% backing Pittsburgh

Doug’s VPID Take – Pittsburgh wins

NHL – Saturday – (977) VEGAS at (978) WINNIPEG  7:05 ET NBC

I initially thought the oddsmakers made a bad total on this first Western Finals battle at 5.5 and we have a rare move of the release up to 6. These teams are all about offensive pressure and while I’m the first to admit Vegas goalie Marc-Andre Fleury’s has played spectacularly in permitting 1.53 GAG in the playoffs, Winnipeg brings a whole different level of speed and pressure. Then I really started looking at the numbers found the Jets at 7-5 UNDER and the Golden Knights at 5-4 UNDER. Does a 3-2 final score seem out of the question, not really.

Betting Trend – 80% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under

NBA – Sunday – (53) CLEVELAND at (54) BOSTON  3:35 ET  ABC

Off their impressive demolition of Philadelphia in five games, those setting the odds made Boston a -1.5 point home favorite in Game 1. But basketball bettors are loving LeBron and how his team has been begun to play and flipped Cleveland to -1.5 point faves. Do I think the Cavaliers are likely to win one time in the first two games in Bean-Town, yes. I’m just not sure it will the first one with the Celtics 7-0 SU & ATS in the playoffs and 11-0 ATS at home revenging a loss by 10 or more points.

Betting Trend – 78% backing Cleveland

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Boston

 

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 77-61-3 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 40-47-1 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 108-111-4 ATS

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