VPID Line Moves, Predictions and Free Picks for May 1/2

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We have a lot of action in line moves, including both Stanley Cup games on Tuesday, plus, NBA Playoff tilts and baseball battles. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (158-129-5 run) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here Thursday.

NBA – (557) CLEVELAND at (558) TORONTO  8:05 ET  TNT

The total on this Eastern Conference semi-final has slid three points and isn’t that thought-provoking! The teams were 2-1 OVER on the season, with not one total below 221. Cleveland played five straight Under’s against Indiana before the last two went Over. Toronto opened up with three consecutive Over’s vs. Washington, but the last three fell below the sportsbooks final number. Myself, I’ll stick with the OVER, knowing the first game of series with the total 210 to 219.5 is on a 13-4 run.

Betting Trend – 52% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over

NHL – (51) WASHINGTON at (52) PITTSBURGH  7:35 ET  NBCSN (side and total)

In spite of Pittsburgh known for winning important games and Washington not, the Penguins have marched from -145 to -135 or less home favorites. Besides that being a bit of head-scratcher, after two Under’s in the series, the total has climbed from 5.5 to 6. Though the Capitals are an intriguing choice, who is comfortable backing them against a squad like the Pens, not me. Generally, if these two are going to be involved in a higher scoring affair, it will be in the Steel City. Pitt still makes the most sense for my money, but I’ll still side with the UNDER, preferring the defense I’ve seen.

Betting Trend – 91% backing Pittsburgh and 91% on Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Pittsburgh wins, lean Under

NHL – (53) NASHVILLE at (54) WINNIPEG 8:05 ET  CNBC

Nashville is having problems with Winnipeg’s attacking and relentless pressure style. The Jets could be up 2-0 in the series and rest assured, this team is very talented on offense. With the best home record in the NHL this season (35-9 SU), Winnipeg takes the series lead in their building tonight.

Betting Trend – 69% backing Winnipeg

Doug’s VPID Take – Winnipeg wins

MLB(961) L.A. DODGERS at (962) ARIZONA  9:40 ET  SNLA, FSAZ

Normally I stay away from reporting big spreads, even those that have a lot of line movement, but this one is noteworthy. Clayton Kershaw (1-4, 2.84 ERA) and the Dodgers were sent out as -215 favorites against somebody named Matt Koch (1-0, 2.25) and I don’t think he’s related to the Koch brothers in any way, but I don’t know for sure. Yet Kershaw and L.A. are all the way down to -180 and here is why. We know Arizona is the best team presently in the NL and with Cory Seager gone for the year, the Dodgers are without their No. 2 and No.3 hitters (Justin Turner) on Dave Roberts lineup card. Add in Kershaw’s 5-8 record at Chase Field is the worst at any park he’s pitched and one can understand the consternation.

Betting Trend – 59% backing Los Angeles

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Los Angeles

MLB (969) KANSAS CITY at (970) BOSTON  7:10 ET  FSKC, NESN

Given Kansas City has the worst offense in baseball at 3.4 RPG and this confrontation will feature the ace of each staff, the total heading north from 7.5 to 8 doesn’t add up. However, the Boston bats are heating up again and have scored 20 runs in their last three games and even the Royals are starting to swing like they know what they are doing in tallying 15 runs in the past trio of tilts. Jakob Junis (3-2, 3.34 ERA) is a fine looking pitcher, but he was just taken yard five times by the White Sox in last outing and the Royals bullpen is like pouring gas on a fire with a 6.43 ERA. Chris Sale (2-1, 2.3) is trustworthy, but the team from Bean-Town is 17-6 OVER at Fenway after scoring 10 or more runs.

Betting Trend – 59% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over

NBA – Wednesday(507) UTAH at (598) HOUSTON  8:05 ET  TNT

The first game of this series ended in a Push at 206, so oddsmakers left it alone and sent out the same figure. Basketball bettors disagreed and have shoved the total down to 204.5. I believe this is incorrect and here is why. Though Utah has only averaged just over 98 PPG in five meetings with Houston this season, the Rockets are at over 114 PPG in those same contests. Plus, ‘The Beard’ and the boys are 9-1 OVER at home off three or more straight covers.

Betting Trend – 79% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over

 

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 64-55-3 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 36-43-1 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 95-98-4 ATS

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