For line moves, we are in baseball heavy territory and have a load of free picks for you. With Game 2 of the NBA Finals quiet so far on the numbers, we turn our attention to Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Finals for line movement. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (202-161-3 run) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here next week.
MLB – (901) CHIC. CUBS at (902) N.Y. METS 9:05 ET CSN-C, SNY (side and total)
Though the Mets Zack Wheeler (2-4, 5.40 ERA) has hardly been effective, baseball bettors feel vilipend towards the Cubs Tyler Chatwood (3-4, 4.10) and dropped Chicago like an anvil from -130 to -110 in Game 2 of this series. Chatwood has walked 45 batters in just 48+ innings and has been working with coaches to find the proper release point. The total has also been affected by these two hurlers, rising from 8.5 to 9. The OVER looks like a sure thing, but just a lean with the Cubs for being the better and healthier team, but keeping my fingers crossed Chatwood doesn’t give the game away.
Betting Trend – 70% backing Cubs, 88% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Cubs, Play Over
MLB – (903) WASHINGTON at (904) ATLANTA 7:35 ET MASN2, FSSO
Atlanta’s victory last night over Washington allowed them to hop the Nationals and back into first place in a low-scoring 4-2 battle. On the scoring front, more of the same is expected Friday night has the total slid from 8.5 to 8. The culprits are starting pitchers Stephen Strasburg (6-4, 3.13) and Mike Foltynewicz (4-2, 2.55). Both pitchers have made four quality starts and might be due for an off-game, but nothing really suggests this and Strasburg is 10-1 UNDER in road games vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs a game.
Betting Trend – 71% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
MLB – (929) MILWAUKEE at (930) CHIC. WHITE SOX 8:10 ET FSWI, CS-C (side and total)
The Brewers are playing excellent baseball and have won five of six and eight of 10 and make another trip to Chicago, but this one will be on the South Side. Milwaukee figures to win this series with ease versus the White Sox, but the Brew Crew is a dwindling road fave, down 25 cents to -130. The Crew’s Chase Anderson (4-3, 4.42) has an ERA over 7, which is accounting for the skepticism, with the Sox well-traveled Hector Santiago (1-2, 4.87) having a respectable 3.54 ERA over his last 20+ innings. I cannot get past Milwaukee’s 18-10 road record and the Pale Hose at 8-18 at home. The total has nose-dived from 9.5 to 8.5, yet I found Milwaukee is 17-6 OVER on the road vs. lefties and the Sox are 12-2 OVER after three or more losses this season.
Betting Trend – 83% backing Milwaukee, 89% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Milwaukee wins, Play Over
MLB – TAMPA BAY (+110) at SEATTLE (-130) (Series Betting)
The Sergio Romo experiment continues for Tampa Bay being the Game 1 starter. The results are mixed, but so have Mike Leake’s performances for Seattle. Though Chris Archer has thrown better of late, I like what I see from Marco Gonzales and will take the Mariners in the middle game. Felix Hernandez is no longer “The King” and the Rays Blake Snell continues to impress. Because I’m not sold on Romo and what Tampa Bay is trying to accomplish, a lean for the home team.
Betting Trend – 58% backing Seattle
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Seattle
MLB – L.A. DODGERS (-130) at COLORADO (+110) (Series Betting)
Though the Dodgers had a successful 6-4 homestand, they only gained one game on first place Colorado in the NL West. They are favored to pick up at least one more this weekend in the mountains. With Alex Wood moved back to Sunday with leg tightness, Dennis Santana arrives from Triple-A to pitch the opener for Los Angeles. The Rockies counter with Tyler Anderson, who’s been taken deep every five innings on average. Walker Buehler has pitched reliably for L.A. and German Marquez has been exceptional in past three outings. Hard to say what Wood will be like and the Rocks Chad Bettis has seen his ERA balloon more than two runs over his last seven starts. No easy call, but I’ll back Colorado at home.
Betting Trend – 53% backing Los Angeles
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Colorado
NHL – Saturday – (5) VEGAS at (6) WASHINGTON 8:05 ET NBCSN
Though Washington is back home after a split in Vegas, the Capitals are a sinking favorite against the Golden Knights. The Caps were sent out at -140 and at last look were at -125. The Knights are a solid 28-21 in the away sweaters and are 7-0 revenging a home loss. But Washington is15-3 after three straight road games. I wouldn’t be surprised if Vegas wins one back East, just not sure its Game 3.
Betting Trend – 56% backing Washington
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Washington
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 96-88-6 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 40-50-1 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 131-135-7 ATS