VPID Line Moves and Free Picks for Valentine’s Day

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With it being Valentine’s Day, when looking over the games with line moves, thought we would go the extra mile and provide SIX Free picks today. Hopefully our gift to you. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (95-79-3 run) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here Friday.

NBA – (701) ATLANTA at (705) DETROIT  7:05 ET  FSSE, FSD

Yesterday, Atlanta’s total went up, today it goes down. The Hawks are in Detroit and the total has fallen like my stocks did for a time last week from 212 to 206. Though Atlanta’s point total has hung in, they have shot 43.5 percent or lower in the six of their past eight contests. After the early euphoria of Blake Griffin trade, the Pistons have lost three in a row and made only 41 percent of shot attempts in that stretch. For my money, it is a concern these two teams are 8-1 OVER in recent meetings, but I will side with Detroit having 27-9 UNDER record after two or more losses.

Betting Trend – 92% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under

NBA – (715) L.A. CLIPPERS at (716) BOSTON  8:05 ET  ESPN

With Dicky Vitale in the house, those betting basketball are certain he will see a higher scoring affair and moved the total from 208 to 212. Why I’m not sure. After a pretty good stretch, the Boston offense is back to normal and struggling and they have not broken the 100-point barrier once in their past five games. For whatever reason, the Clippers are playing improved defense and have conceded 102.3 PPG compared to 106.8 PPG on the season. I will go contrarian here and the Clips are 13-5 UNDER in non-conference games this year.

Betting Trend – 84% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under

CBB – (725) SOUTH FLORIDA at (726) CENT. FLORIDA  6:00 ET  ESPNN (side and total)

Let’s be honest, there will be no comparison between this game and the Black Friday football thriller we witnessed about 11 weeks ago. South Florida stinks which is why they Bulls opened as -15 point chalky underdogs. But like USF, Central Florida cannot score (both average under 64 PPG) and the Knights are down to -13. What is a trifle odd is the total climbed three points to 125, however, that is more in line with both teams total scores. This game will be ESPN News and frankly, I’d rather watch a committee meeting on C-Span than this matchup. As for picks, I prefer the OVER and just a small lean with UCF, who’s been a solid home favorite in recent years.

Betting Trend – 52% backing Over and 61% on South Florida

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over, Lean Central Florida

CBB – (737) ST. JOSEPH’S at (738) FORDHAM 7:00 ET (side and total)

Another contest in which bettors have too much time on their hands is this A-10 thriller (?). Despite being 2-12 and 5-9 ATS on the road, St. Joe’s has blown up from a -3.5 to -6 point road fave. Fordham averages 54 shots a game which makes them as interesting as watching the Nordic Combined on the Olympics. Call me crazy and most do, but I’ll take the Rams and keep my fingers crossed they score above the season average of around 63 PPG, having won three of their last four. With that in mind, I will also support the total being lifted from 134 to 137, seeing Fordham will have to score to cover.

Betting Trend – 84% backing St. Joe’s and 82% on Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Fordham and Over

 

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 30-32-2 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 10-16 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 48-40-2 ATS

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