VPID Line Moves and Free Picks for Jan. 4th


Let’s move ahead on line moves to Thursday and look at the NBA and college basketball.  Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (51-40-2 run) to see what we are thinking this week. See you back here tomorrow to talk NFL Wild Card Weekend.

NBA – (501) GOLDEN STATE at (502) HOUSTON  8:05 ET  TNT (side and total)

Despite Golden State blowing big lead in Dallas last night before surviving to win, hoops bettors are still backing the Warriors against Harden-less Houston. Golden State has been propped up from -4 to -5.5 and also taken the total with them, lifted four points to 230. Even with Harden, the Rockets were 1-5 SU and ATS in H-Town versus Curry and company and honestly, why can’t the total go OVER?

Betting Trend – 77% backing Golden State and 80% on Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Golden State and Over (Note: Disregard, Durant now OUT)

CBB – (515) OHIO STATE at (516) IOWA  7:00 ET   ESPNU

If you saw Iowa on Tuesday night get manhandled by Michigan in Iowa City, you can understand why the Hawkeyes were flipped from -1 to +1.5 against Ohio State. Iowa is slow and reacts poorly in half court defense, leaving either the corners or the top of the key open, always overcompensating. The Buckeyes have not covered their last four and are just 2-3 SU and ATS in away games, but they are quicker and should squeak out a victory over mediocre Iowa club.

Betting Trend – 60% backing Ohio State

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Ohio State

CBB – (519) ARK.- L.R. at (520) GEORGIA STATE  7:15 ET  ESPN3  (side and total)

This is not the same Georgia State squad of a few years ago, but this is not the same Arkansas-Little Rock program over the past couple of decades either. Those betting basketball thought Georgia State was overvalued and dropped them two points as home favorites to -13.5. At the same time they believed the total of 123 was too low and carried it to 126. For the side, I have to back the Panthers at home since the Red Wolves are losing by 17.1 PPG on the road. As for the total, though ARLR have Under tendencies, Georgia State will score enough to drag this OVER.

Betting Trend – 80% backing Ark.-LR and 90% on Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Georgia State and Over

CBB – (527) MARYLAND at (528) MICHIGAN ST.  8:00 ET FS1

Maryland is dealing with injury issues, which I think will comprise their defense in East Lansing. I am not the only one thinking this as the total has risen like the snow on Pensacola, Fl from 137.5 to 140.5. The frenetic pace of which Michigan State plays with will not be able to stopped all night by the Terps, as the Spartans will have runs. With Michigan State averaging over 97 PPG at home, one cannot ignore they are 10-2 OVER when they reach 81-point barrier.

Betting Trend – 95% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over


Public Consensus Record (Since 12/1/17) – 51% to 79% – 27-25-2 ATS

Public Consensus Record (Since 12/1/17) – 80% or Higher – 13-13 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (Since 12/1/17) – 49-38-2 ATS


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