VPID Line Moves and Free Picks for Jan. 5-8

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Big weekend of line moves across a variety of sports. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (56-41-2 run, 5-1 yesterday) to see what we are thinking this week. See you back here next week.

NBA – (801) NEW YORK at (502) MIAMI  8:05 ET    MSG, SUN

The total on this NBA contest is climbing like the volume of the music will be at the South Beach clubs this weekend. The total opened at 200.5 and has risen to 202.5. In reviewing the numbers, both teams offenses and defense have been hot or cold in last half dozen assignments, so nothing to learn there. I’ll lean with the lower score, with Miami 22-13 UNDER this season and 14-5 UNDER having won two of three games.

Betting Trend – 95% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under

CBB – (833) NORTHERN KENTUCKY at (834) OAKLAND U.  9:00 ET   ESPN2

This game is worth watching, since one of these teams is likely to make the NCAA tournament in March. Northern Kentucky was the oddsmakers choice as the better team and they opened as one-point road favorites. Hardcore college basketball bettors are familiar with Oakland’s long time success and flipped them to a two-point pick. Both points of view have their merits and the visiting Norse are the better defensive team. Nevertheless, hard to go against the Golden Grizzlies on their floor.

Betting Trend – 65% backing Oakland U.

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Oakland U.

NFL – (101) TENNESSEE at (102) KANSAS CITY  4:30 ET  ESPN

Football bettors are understandably weary of Tennessee and moved them from +7 to +8.5. With the Kansas City offense back on track in scoring 28.5 points a game in their last five outings, how the Titans keep pace unless they play great defense is a real concern. Tennessee is averaging only 18.4 PPG in their past seven ballgames and they have been underachievers in this department all season. Tennessee is 1-8 ATS off a home win. One aspect to keep in mind however, K.C. is 2-12 ATS in most recent playoff games.

Betting Trend – 56% backing Tennessee

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Kansas City

NFL – (103) ATLANTA at (104) L.A. RAMS  8:15 ET  NBC

The most curious aspect of this Wild Card clash before the game starts is what the attendance will be like. Will the Rams bandwagon start to finally fill up? The other part that matters even more to those of us betting football is, are the L.A. Rams really deserving up moving up from -4.5 to -6 point favorites? (now mostly at -5.5) That is more than a fair question given the Rams lack of experience on this stage and Matt Ryan and many of teammates very familiar with this time of year. If Atlanta plays even in the first quarter, that could set the stage for a tight contest.

Betting Trend – 63% backing Atlanta

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Atlanta

NFL – (105) BUFFALO at (106) JACKSONVILLE  1:00 ET  CBS (side and total)

Jacksonville, losers of two straight, no problem. Actually that is the opinion of those placing bets, shifting the Jaguars from -7.5 to -9 against Buffalo. While the Jags might be jumpy at first seeing all those covered empty seats filled with actual cheering fans, this is a good matchup for them. Even with a healthy LeSean McCoy, Buffalo did not figure to score much and make him less than 100 percent, a further edge for stout Jacksonville defense. The Bills defense forced a ton of turnovers early, but that slowed in the second half.  Unless Buffalo can generate at least three miscues, this is poor matchup for them. Also, as the week progressed the total slide from 41 to 39.5. This was understandable because of Jacksonville’s defense and ability to run the ball against the No.29 Bills run defense, which could shorten the game.

Betting Trend – 55% backing Buffalo, 57% on Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Jacksonville, Play Under

NFL – (107) CAROLINA at (108) NEW ORLEANS  4:30  ET  FOX

New Orleans has won and covered both battles with Carolina and needs a third to advance. The fact is, the winner of this game is most likely facing Philadelphia, who has played like a shell of itself since losing Carson Wentz. That means this winner, unless Atlanta upsets L.A., will have a legitimate shot of reaching NFC title game. New Orleans has been bumped from -5.5 to -6.5 and the concerns about Cam Newton shoulder appear real. If the Saints take early control in The Dome, they should be moving on.

Betting Trend – 59% backing Carolina

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean New Orleans

CFB – (151) ALABAMA vs. (152) GEORGIA  8:10 ET  ESPN

In Nevada, not much change on the total, but that is not the case at the offshore sportsbooks, who have universally taken the number from 45 to 44. Hard to find fault with this since we have two great defenses and two head coaches who are very familiar with each other. With Alabama 6-2 UNDER in last eight and frequently limiting teams with traditional offenses like Georgia runs, I am inclined to agree with lower total.

Betting Trend – 63% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under

 

Public Consensus Record (Since 12/1/17) – 51% to 79% – 27-25-2 ATS

Public Consensus Record (Since 12/1/17) – 80% or Higher – 13-13 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (Since 12/1/17) – 55-38-2 ATS

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