Happy New Year and welcome back to Line Moves. Today we have a couple line moves in the NBA and college basketball. We were going to do North Carolina and Florida State, but the line keeps bouncing from -1 to +1 for both teams so we passed. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (50-37-2 run) to see what we are thinking this week. See you back here tomorrow.
NBA – (713) TORONTO at (714) CHICAGO 8:05 ET SNET, CSCH
Despite the fact Da Bulls are 13-2 ATS in their past 15 games, hoops bettors have more confidence in Toronto and pushed them from -3.5 to -5.5. The Raptors have won 14 of 17 (10-7 ATS) and do have the better team. However, Chicago is 9-1 ATS playing into double revenge and is 8-1 ATS recently versus the Purple Dinosaurs, which includes 4-0 SU and ATS on the south side of Chi-Town.
Betting Trend – 63% backing Toronto
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Chicago
NBA – (721) NEW ORLEANS at (722) UTAH 9:05 ET FSNO
This Western Conference clash has the largest totals move in The Association, up a whopping four points to 212.5. These teams met at this same location 33 days ago and the total that night was 204, with Utah winning 114-108, easily going Over. Of late, both defenses have been spotty, which plays into rising total. Though New Orleans is 11-3 Over as an underdog this season, the Jazz are 7-0 UNDER having lost three of four and I’ll lean that direction. (And keep my fingers crossed)
Betting Trend – 57% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
CBB – (765) KENTUCKY at (766) LSU 8:30 ET SECN
Kentucky coach John Calipari is embracing the idea that his five freshmen are playing first conference road game. “This will be a great learning experience for them (Kentucky players).” Basketball bettors are not so sure and they have lowered the Wildcats from -4.5 to -2.5 at LSU. Having watched both teams three times, I still don’t have a comfortable read on either. I will wait to see if more Kentucky money comes in and then take the Tigers at +3 or better, because they average four more 3’s a game and should hold their own on the glass.
Betting Trend – 68% backing Kentucky
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean LSU
CBB – (767) ST. BONAVENTURE at (768) DAYTON 8:30 ET CBSSN
For decades really, Dayton has enjoyed one the best home court advantages. That did not always relate to spread results, but it certainly mattered in the win/loss column. The Flyers only have one starter back from a year ago and now have a mediocre coach in Anthony Grant. Nonetheless, they are still being give the benefit of the doubt versus a quality St. Bonaventure bunch who is a bit underrated from my perspective. Dayton has sunk from +4 to +1.5. For my money, this adds value on the Bonnies, who are 9-0 ATS in away games after scoring 85 points or more the last three seasons.
Betting Trend – 75% backing St. Bonaventure
Doug’s VPID Take – St. Bonaventure covers
Public Consensus Record (Since 12/1/17) – 51% to 79% – 25-23-2 ATS
Public Consensus Record (Since 12/1/17) – 80% or Higher – 13-13 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (Since 12/1/17) – 47-36-2 ATS