VPID Line Moves and Free Picks for Jan. 31st

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Back at it for line moves on Wednesday with five altogether. If you are not following the direction of line moves, you are missing an opportunity, as the record shows below. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (80-70-3 run) to see what we are thinking this week. See you back here Friday.

NBA – (701) MEMPHIS at (702) INDIANA  7:05 ET  FSSE, FSIN

Have to admit, a captivating move on the total for this contest, which is down 205 to 203. Why do I say this, here is the reason. From a practical perspective, Memphis’ average total score is roughly 203 points. However, in their past five outings, the Grizzlies are at 210.5. Indiana plays at a faster pace in averaging over 211 points and they are just below that level at 209 in their last five contests. Though I have a good system that backs the Under, I think this is too far a drop and will lean with OVER.

Betting Trend – 88% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over

NBA – (707) MIAMI at (708) CLEVELAND  7:35 ET  SUN, FSOH (side and total)

After last night, it is impossible to trust Cleveland. Not that it hasn’t been all year with their atrocious 14-34-1 ATS record, but giving up 125 points to a Detroit team that was depleted by trade the day before is unforgivable. Bettors are all in thus far in staying away from Cavs, dropping them two points to -1.5. (Think about that, bettors saying Miami is better on neutral floor). Not surprisingly, with the Cavaliers cavalier about playing defense, the total shot up from 213 to 215. Concerning the side, I would pass but will offer an opinion that Cleveland covers at this price. What I prefer more is the UNDER, since the Heat have not scored or allowed 100 points in four games and the Cavs are 8-0 UNDER when playing on consecutive days.

Betting Trend – 79% backing Over and 54% on Miami

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under, Lean Cleveland

CBB – (759) TEXAS at (760) TEXAS TECH  9:00 ET ESPNU

In the Big 12, a big jump on the total, up four points to 129.5. Oddsmakers saw two teams holding opponents under 40 percent shooting and they are 9-2 UNDER in their latest battles, including a 5-0 UNDER run. While I could make case for the direction of the move, Texas is 7-0 UNDER after playing two straight games as favorite.

Betting Trend – 53% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under

CBB – (769) WYOMING at (770) COLORADO STATE  9:00 ET  AT&T Network (Locals)

Colorado State is having a rugged MWC ride with a 3-7 record and losing by 5.6 PPG. Wyoming has the better club and is 14-7 overall and 5-3 in the league and they have been pushed from -3.5 to -5.5. One of the Rams conference wins was in Laramie, where they pulled off 78-73 upset as seven-point underdogs. Maybe Wyoming will be motivated by revenge, but Colorado State has lost four in a row and has something to play for also.

Betting Trend – 66% backing Wyoming

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Colorado State (Update – Officially passing on Colo. State. Leading scorer is out.

 

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 24-25-1 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 7-9 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 39-26-1 ATS

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