Going to take in a full weekend of action for line moves. We have the NBA on Friday, college basketball, and NBA on Saturday and the Pro Bowl on Sunday. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (77-64-3 run) to see what we are thinking this week. See you back here next week
NBA – (807) HOUSTON at (808) NEW ORLEANS 8:05 ET ESPN
We do not see this often, but the total in a Houston game is falling, down to 227 from the opening release of 229.5. I actually agree with this, but we are getting into territory making it harder to wager on. Nevertheless, have this system that supports the UNDER and reads this way. Play Under on teams like New Orleans when the total is 220 or higher, after two or more wins, against opponent after three or more consecutive wins. These teams are 35-5 UNDER the last five years.
Betting Trend – 80% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
NBA – (815) PHILADELPHIA at (816) SAN ANTONIO 8:35 ET CSP, KENS
With the Spurs the No.1 scoring defense in the NBA and Philadelphia much improved over their past four games in holding teams to 95 PPG, the total in this matchup has come crashing down from 205 to 201. Once again I agree since San Antonio is 20-5 UNDER when the total is 200 to 209.5 this season. My concern is all the lost value of the lower figure.
Betting Trend – 72% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
NBA – (819) NEW YORK at (820) PHOENIX 9:05 ET MSG, FSAZ (side and total)
The Knicks wrap up seven-game road trip in the desert and they have sunk as favorites from -2.5 to -1. New York is just 6-19 SU away from home this season and is playing their third game in four days, which includes last night’s setback in Denver by 12. Neither team is presently playing a lick of defense, with opposing teams shooting over 50 percent over a four-game span. That is why it is surprising to see the total slide from 220 to 217.5. I think the Knicks just want head home and are beaten by the Suns and the points will be ample.
Betting Trend – 57% backing Phoenix and 64% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Phoenix covers and Over
CBB – Saturday – (533) VIRGINIA at (534) DUKE 2:00 ET CBS
Talk about your battle of wills! The No.1 scoring offense against the No.1 scoring defense. I will back Duke only because they are at home. The Blue Devils have more raw talent, but Virginia is the better team.
Anticipated Line – Duke by 3 to 5 points
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Duke (at these numbers)
CBB – Saturday – (585) KENTUCKY at (586) WEST VIRGINIA 7:00 ET ESPN
Kentucky’s size might help them to pass over the press, but they could crack under all the continued pressure. Kansas won in Morgantown, however, they had senior Devonte Graham to help weather the storm. Prefer Mountaineers more at the lower number.
Anticipated Line – West Virginia by 6 to 8 points
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean West Virginia
CBB – Saturday – (589) TEXAS A&M at (590) KANSAS 4:30 ET ESPN
Kansas is in first place in the Big 12 and Texas A&M is tied for last in the SEC. If the Jayhawks guards dominate the Aggies weaker backcourt, this will be a blowout. However, Texas A&M has the size in the frontcourt to give Kansas a game and I can see them losing by single digits at Allen Fieldhouse.
Anticipated Line – Kansas by 10 to 12 points
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Texas A&M
NBA – Saturday – (509) BOSTON at (510) GOLDEN STATE 8:35 ET ABC
Boston finally ended four-game losing streak in winning against the Clippers and will have two full days rest. Maybe Golden State will want to send a message, but they are only 4-7-2 ATS this month. At eight points or more, the Celtics are enticing.
Anticipated Line – Golden State by 7 to 9 points
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Boston
NFL – Sunday – (497) AFC at (498) NFC 3:00 ET ESPN
I’m not going to lie, I have watched one half of the Pro Bowl in I do not know how many years, only when it was on NBC a few years ago. That’s it. I will not watch this year’s game and I could care less the total went from 71 to 69, I’m am just letting you know. Given the game time, I will probably check into NHL All-Star game to watch some of that before this contest for watch replay of college hoops game I wanted to catch up on. Just being honest.
Betting Trend – 54% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Zero opinion
Public Consensus Record (Since 12/1/17) – 51% to 79% – 41-38-3 ATS
Public Consensus Record (Since 12/1/17) – 80% or Higher – 19-21 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (Since 12/1/17) – 67-52-3 ATS