For line moves today, let’s talk about both TNT games tonight and a couple of college basketball contests. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (72-59-3 run) to see what we are thinking this week. See you back here tomorrow.
NBA – (503) CLEVELAND at (504) SAN ANTONIO 8:05 ET TNT (side and total)
Word has come out there is no “Love-fest” concerning Kevin Love among the warring factions in the Cleveland locker room. Whether this air-out session helps the Cavaliers, we will see. However, with San Antonio 28th in scoring offense, bettors know Cleveland can still score, even if their defense is a conundrum. The Spurs have been flipped from -2 to +1.5 point underdogs. In this case, bettors have also taken the total with the Cavs and pushed it from 207.5 to 211. I would recommend passing on the side and agree with the higher total.
Betting Trend – 92% backing Under, 66% on Cleveland
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over, slight lean Cleveland
NBA – (509) BOSTON at (510) L.A. LAKERS 10:35 ET TNT
Maybe a trip out West will cure Boston, after losing three straight home games. The Celtics are No.1 in field goal percentage defense at 43.2 percent and have not held past three opponents below 45 percent. In addition, Boston has shot over 45 percent once in past six starts and has 70 turnovers in their last four contests. Not exactly sure how this plays into total, especially with the Lakers yo-yo performances, but I do know the total has climbed from 207 to 208.5. I will take the UNDER on the total, with the C’s 7-0 UNDER off an upset loss as a home favorite this season.
Betting Trend – 54% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
CBB – (521) KANSAS at (522) OKLAHOMA 7:00 ET ESPN
ESPN has heavily promoted this Big 12 battle and the opening total of 172 screams of a high scoring affair. Though nobody thinks this will be low scoring encounter, not everyone was convinced the total was on target and it has been lowered to 170. I realize Oklahoma has played two OT’s games in conference, still, they are allowing 73 shot attempts per contest. Nonetheless, Kansas is 7-0 UNDER away versus teams averaging 62 or more shots a game, more than halfway into the regular season the last three years.
Betting Trend – 66% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
CBB – (531) BALL STATE at (532) KENT STATE 7:00 ET ESPN3
Ball State jumped from a Pick to -3 at Kent State and I cannot say why. The Cardinals do have the better record (12-7 vs. 9-10) and are the better shooting team (45.9% vs. 43%). But the Golden Flashes are 7-2 SU at home compared to Ball State at 3-6 SU in away games. The Cardinals are also 1-10 (4-7 ATS) in recent visits to Kent and have committed 23 more turnovers than their opponent in past four conflicts.
Betting Trend – 55% backing Kent State
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Kent State
Public Consensus Record (Since 12/1/17) – 51% to 79% – 37-34-3 ATS
Public Consensus Record (Since 12/1/17) – 80% or Higher – 19-20 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (Since 12/1/17) – 64-48-3 ATS