For line moves, let’s talk NBA, college basketball for Saturday and NFL title games for Sunday. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (69-58-3 run) to see what we are thinking this week. See you back here next week.
NBA – (803) MIAMI at (804) BROOKLYN 7:35 ET SUN, YES
Miami has won eight of nine and is known as more of a defensive team, ranked 5th in points allowed. Yet during this winning stretch, the Heat are a confounding 7-2 OVER, as they have averaged 106.2 PPG compared to 101.2 PPG average. With Brooklyn 26th in points permitted, the total rising two points to 207.5 makes sense, yet, Miami is 23-9 UNDER having covered four of their last five against the spread.
Betting Trend – 66% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
NBA – (811) NEW YORK at (812) UTAH 10:35 ET ESPN
The word – hot – and Utah have not been used in the same sentence when it comes to their basketball team for quite some time. Despite this, the Jazz has been taken from -4 to -6 against New York. The Knicks are 5-16 and 8-13 ATS on the road this season, losing by 7.4 PPG. But here is where the road gets bumpy. Utah is on a 5-15 Debbie Downer and coming off Sacramento victory, they have not won two straight since their first two games of December. Toss in the Jazz are 6-13 ATS (13-6 SU) versus New York and this is an ugly game to pick. I’ll lean with the Knickerbockers, only because I would rather take the points than give them.
Trend – 54% backing Utah
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
CBB – Saturday – (569) XAVIER at (570) SETON HALL 2:30 ET FOX
Both these Big East teams are chasing Villanova. The loser falls two games back and will have that much harder time trying to catch the Wildcats. With Seton Hall at home, where they are 11-0 SU, I look for them to bounce back off 17-point thrashing at Creighton.
Anticipated Line – Pick to Seton Hall by 2
Doug’s VPID Take – Seton Hall covers (at these numbers)
CBB – Saturday – (583) ARIZONA at (584) STANFORD 4:00 ET CBS
This matchup is for the outright lead in the Pac-12. Arizona was supposed to be here, not Stanford. I’ve seen both teams play at least twice and while I like how the Cardinal are playing, in terms of how each club plays, Stanford is a good match for the Wildcats.
Anticipated Line – Arizona by 3 to 5 points
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Arizona
CBB – Saturday – (667) FLORIDA at (668) KENTUCKY 8:15 ET ESPN
Kentucky can move into first place tie with Florida with a home win. This very young Wildcats crew has trouble on the road, but is 11-0 SU in Lexington (4-7 ATS). The Gators are a hard squad to figure and even in some of their wins, it seemed like they would lose for sure. If Florida, won, I would not be shocked, but I do not believe they will.
Anticipated Line – Kentucky by 1 to 3 points
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Kentucky
CBB – Saturday – (511) GOLDEN STATE at (512) HOUSTON 8:35 ET ABC
This is third meeting of the two teams most presume will be in the Western finals. With Golden State 4-0 ATS in recent visits to H-Town and the road team 5-1 ATS of late, I’ll side with the Warriors.
Anticipated Line – One point either way
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Golden State
NFL – (311) JACKSONVILLE at (312) NEW ENGLAND 3:05 ET CBS
New England was sent out as a eight-point home favorite and quicker than a missed Markus Williams tackle last Sunday night, football bettors were digging the Patriots and moved them to -9. This is not to say the number is not justified, quite the contrary. Most oddsmakers are going to make New England an automatic four-point home favorite for starters, just playing at home in a non-division contest. Next, you add in Bill Belichick, the Tom Brady vs. Blake Bortles quarterback matchup and New England’s postseason experience and the betting public’s adjustment makes all the sense in the world. However, the Brady problem has sent the number to -7 and this will remain a mystery.
The total opened at 47, immediately slipped to 46 and has mostly stayed there. Both offenses average more than 26 PPG and the defenses concede under 19 points. Bortles play will also have direct impact on total. Let’s say he has normal game (whatever that is), which leads me to saying the UNDER is the right call, along with New England.
Betting Trend – 60% backing New England, 53% backing Under (these number could change)
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans New England and Under
NFL – (313) MINNESOTA at (314) PHILADELPHIA 6:40 ET FOX
The opening total of 38 was a curious figure, not because it is wrong, rather, with the rules designed to promote offense, games in the 30’s are as common as Beta VCR’s. Not sure if this total made people feel uncomfortable even if we have a Case Keenum vs. Nick Foles QB matchup, but the total has been elevated to 39.
In breaking this contest down, three scores come to mind 16-13, 17-13 or 20-17, all three which would qualify as Under’s. Of course a sloppy turnover or two could adjust scoring, but to assume that happens for quick points is not always wise. I’ll back the UNDER in NFC title game.
Betting Trend – 58% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
Public Consensus Record (Since 12/1/17) – 51% to 79% – 36-30-3 ATS
Public Consensus Record (Since 12/1/17) – 80% or Higher – 19-20 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (Since 12/1/17) – 62-45-3 ATS