VPID Line Moves and Free Picks for Jan. 16


Our line moves have an ACC flavor today, along with NBA action and college basketball flipper. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (65-54-3 run) to see what we are thinking this week. See you back here tomorrow.

NBA – (503) NEW ORLEANS at (504) BOSTON  7:35 ET   NBA-TV

If you thinking about picking a side on this NBA encounter, it appears the sportsbooks and basketball bettors are leaning towards New Orleans. This despite the spread having not budged. Why would I say this, let me explain. The total is up two points to 215. Your average score of the Pelicans road game is over 218 points, while a Boston home game is just past 202. That would suggest New Orleans is more likely to control the pace or the Celtics are going to have a very good offensive night. I’m inclined to think the latter will be true and the Pelicans are 12-3 OVER after allowing 105 points or more in three straight games this season.

Betting Trend – 72% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over

CBB – (509) CLEMSON at (510) NORTH CAROLINA  7:00 ET  ACC/ESPN Extra

In case you did not know, Clemson has lost 58 straight at Chapel Hill, an NCAA record. These two schools are charter members of the ACC (1953) and Clemson has NEVER won a basketball game on the UNC campus. Bettors are taking the approach of the North Carolina knows how to beat the Tigers, with Clemson hoping to win and lifted the Tar Heels from -6 to -7.5. This is a really good Tigers squad but since 1997, there has been seven other times Clemson has been single road underdogs at the Dean Dome and they are 1-6 ATS. No hero pick for me.

Trend – 80% backing North Carolina

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean North Carolina


Kent State is only 8-9 this season and faces a solid Western Michigan bunch that is 11-6. The Broncos were sent out as 1.5-point road favorites and after the number was allowed to cook a bit, the Golden Flashes are now one-point faves. Though Kent State is only 6-5 ATS when Western Mich. visits, they are 10-1 SU and given the spread, this plays into the bettors thinking. I will go against the grain and ride the Broncos, who are 9-2 ATS after three straight games committing 14 or less turnovers.

Betting Trend – 63% backing Kent State

Doug’s VPID Take – Western Michigan covers

CBB – (541) PITTSBURGH at (542) SYRACUSE  9:00 ET  ACC/ESPN Extra

The largest totals move in college buckets is this ACC affair, where the number flew from 123 to 127. The low total was related to Pittsburgh’s offense, which has averaged 55.4 PPG in past five outings. However, the Panthers defense has allowed 76.6 PPG in that span and the Syracuse offense at home is capable of reaching that figure and is 11-3 OVER off two OVER’s.

Betting Trend – 92% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over


Public Consensus Record (Since 12/1/17) – 51% to 79% – 34-30-3 ATS

Public Consensus Record (Since 12/1/17) – 80% or Higher – 18-19 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (Since 12/1/17) – 56-43-3 ATS


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