VPID Line Moves and Free Picks for Jan. 10th

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Hump Day line moves has two NBA contests and two college basketball battles. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (58-47-2 run) to see what we are thinking this week. See you back here tomorrow.

NBA – (705) DALLAS at (706) CHARLOTTE  7:05 ET    FSSW, FSSO

Bettors are counting on a rested Charlotte crew is a good Charlotte crew and elevated the Hornets from -5 to -7 over visiting Dallas. They think Charlotte’s 3-1 (matching ATS mark) road trip is a precursor to better results and having four days off will have them refreshed. Here is where it gets tricky, the Hornets are 0-4 SU and ATS when playing with three or more days rest this season, losing by 11 PPG. Not sure Charlotte is the pick, since they are 28th in field goal percentage and the Mavericks are 16-7 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.

Betting Trend – 95% backing Charlotte

Doug’s VPID Take – Dallas covers

NBA – (717) OKLAHOMA CITY at (718) MINNESOTA 8:05 ET   ESPN

Oklahoma City in ranked third in the NBA in points allowed at 101.5 PPG. Yet, lately, you would not know it, as they have been lit up for 112 PPG in their past five games. With Minnesota averaging over 121 PPG in their last four home contests, the total has shot up from 209 to 212 in this national cable telecast. I agree with the line movement and this supported by this system. When the total is 210 or higher and the home club has beat the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, and is facing opponent that went over the total by 30 or more points in their last three games, the OVER is 27-9 the last five years.

Betting Trend – 96% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over

CBB – (731) DUKE at (732) PITTSBURGH  7:00 ET  ESPN2

Unless you like Duke, this does not figure to be the most entertaining of ACC games this week. Pittsburgh has dropped three straight and has real offensive limitations in averaging 67.5 PPG. While there has been a great deal of discussion about the Blue Devils defense, there has not been any talk about their offense, even on the road, at 88.4 PPG. This is why the Dukies have gone from -17 to -20. With Duke coming off a loss, they should win by 25, but I’ll lean with Pittsburgh at adjusted number, because Devils defense.

Betting Trend – 55% backing Duke

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Pittsburgh

CBB – (755) DRAKE at (756) VALPARIASO  8:00 ET  ESPN3

Drake might be in the first place in the MVC and on a five-game winning streak, but those with the money say that stops tonight at Valpariaso. The Bulldogs were taken from +3 to +5 in spite of Valpo being losers of  seven of nine (3-6 ATS). Drake is 6-4 ATS on the road this season and averages 10 three-pointers a game (8 on the road), which has helped them considerably. This Valpo bunch is not as good as others of the past, but I still like their strong home court edge and I’ll back their defense to limit Drake and find a way to win and cover.

Betting Trend – 54% backing Valparaiso

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Valparaiso

 

Public Consensus Record (Since 12/1/17) – 51% to 79% – 28-25-2 ATS

Public Consensus Record (Since 12/1/17) – 80% or Higher – 18-14 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (Since 12/1/17) – 46-39-2 ATS

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