VPID Line Moves and Free Picks for Feb. 28th


The Line Moves are back today with a pair of contests in the NBA and two in college buckets. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (108-88-4 run) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here Friday.

NBA – (709) PHOENIX at (710) MEMPHIS  8:05 ET  FSAZ, FSSE

Tonight’s total is certainly unusual for Memphis and it has risen from 213 to 217, which makes it even more peculiar. The Grizzlies have only played two games this season in which the total was higher than 213 and that was Houston twice back in October and November. The Grizz have not played a contest in which the closing total was over 215 on the closing line. With Phoenix’s defense having allowed 121 PPG in their last seven outings, this might have worth a shot, but I’m just not sure a depleted Memphis team can take full advantage of this situation.

Betting Trend – 95% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under

NBA – (715) OKLAHOMA CITY at (716) DALLAS  8:30 ET  FSOK, FSSW

Based on how both teams have played the past several weeks, the oddsmakers total of 214 made sense. By the same token, the total dipping three points to 211 also makes sense as the past three matchups in Big D have all seen the total not go over 200 points. Except for the occasional dud, the Thunder is good for at least their season average of 106 PPG. And with the Cuban quitters (that is sort of a joke based on what Mark Cuban said) permitting over 112 PPG in their past seven contests, the lower number is worth a look to me for an OVER play. 

Betting Trend – 65% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over

CBB – (723) MISSISSIPPI at (724) KENTUCKY  7:00 ET  ESPN2

Basketball bettors thought Kentucky was bloated at -12 over Ole Miss and sportsbook now have a slimmed down version of the Wildcats at -9.5. This to me seems like a terrific opportunity with Kentucky on a mini-run of 3-0 SU and ATS and the Rebels playing out the season and the returning players waiting to find out who the next coach will be. With the SU winner of a ‘Cats game on a 12-1 ATS run, Kentucky cruises.

Betting Trend – 75% backing Kentucky

Doug’s VPID Take – Kentucky covers


By most accounts, Syracuse is still a bubble team and there are enough bettors who feel they could be in trouble in Bean Town. The Orange were sent out as a -1 point favorite and after baking, they have been flipped like a pancake to a 1.5-point underdog. As has been the case all year about Syracuse, the offense is a concern. They average 66.5 PPG on the road and they connect on only 38.4 percent of shot attempts. With the ‘Cuse having more reason to play and have handled Boston College in recent years, I also cannot overlook the total of 135.5. When B.C. scores less than 70 points this season, they are dreadful 0-9 SU.

Betting Trend – 86% backing Syracuse

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Syracuse


Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 34-40-3 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 19-19-1 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 61-51-3 ATS


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