VPID Line Moves and Free Picks for Feb. 23-25th

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The NBA is back and we have the latest line moves in the Association, plus a look ahead at two top televised tilts. This plus a host of college basketball action. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (104-87-3 run) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here next week

NBA – (801) BOSTON at (802) DETROIT  7:05 ET  CSNE, FSD

Boston and Detroit return to action and basketball bettors have little faith in either defense as they have pushed the total from 204.5 to 208. The Celtics struggled before the All-Star break in permitting 112.3 PPG, compared to their season average of 99.3 PPG. However, I’m not sure if the Pistons offense is really strong enough to take advantage of the C’s and no doubt coach Brad Stevens has worked on methods to repair weaknesses. In addition, Detroit is 22-9 UNDER versus teams outscoring their opponents by 3+ points a contest.

Betting Trend – 86% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under

NBA – (819) L.A. CLIPPERS at (820) PHOENIX  9:05 ET  PRIME, FSAZ

Another total that is rising is in the desert, with this Pacific encounter up from 224.5 to 229. This looks to be somewhat of a curious line move since Phoenix has only averaged 93.4 PPG in their past five games before the break and the Clippers were playing very solid defense until Golden State tagged them for 134 last night. Of course, it is possible these two could reach the adjusted number, but I’m not thinking so and will say the oddmakers original number is more accurate.

Betting Trend – 79% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under

CBB – (833) DAYTON at (834) RHODE ISLAND  7:00 ET  ESPN2

After blistering the A-10, Rhode Island has lost and survived OT in their past two contests, both spread losers. That has those betting basketball nervous about the Rams and they have slid from -13 to -10.5 point home favorites. Dayton is only 2-10 and 3-9 ATS on the road, but they were expected to be a better team overall and their margin of defeat in this contests is only -5.7 per game. After those two roadies, look for Rhode Island to be more comfortable back home and they will move to 11-1 ATS at home after scoring 80 points or more.

Betting Trend – 51% backing Dayton

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Rhode Island

CBB – Saturday (561) VILLANOVA at (562) CREIGHTON  2:30 ET  FOX

Creighton has been stumbling down the stretch with poor defense and that is a bad sign against a team that can score like Villanova. This will be the first time the Bluejays will be a home underdog this season and I could not back them at +5 or less.

Anticipated Line – Villanova by 5 to 7 points

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Villanova (at these numbers)

CBB – Saturday (593) KANSAS at (594) TEXAS TECH  4:15 ET  ESPN

In trying to determine the most accurate line, we don’t know the status of Red Raiders star guard Keenan Evans, who is day-to-day because of a toe injury. If he’s 100 percent Texas Tech has a chance. However, Kansas is getting that look in their eye again and I will lean in their direction.

Anticipated Line – One point either way

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Kansas

NBA – Saturday (507) OKLAHOMA CITY at (508) GOLDEN STATE  8:35 ET  ABC

Golden State lost by 20 at home to the Thunder back on Feb. 6th and given the pride of this club one would think they would be ready to play to make amends and prove a point. Warriors by double digits.

Anticipated Line – Golden State by 7 to 9 points

Doug’s VPID Take – Golden State covers

NBA – Sunday (805) SAN ANTONIO at (806) CLEVELAND  3:30 ET  ABC

Cleveland losing at home to Washington brought back feelings of doubt about this team. San Antonio is strictly better than average and well-coached. Probably best to pass, but for this article, a small lean with the Spurs who are 5-13 SU as underdogs, losing by 4.7 PPG.

Anticipated Line – Cleveland by 3 to 5 points

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Golden State

CBB – Sunday  (837) FLORIDA STATE at (838) N.C. STATE  6:00 ET  ESPNU

This is among a half dozen battles involving teams that are more or less on the bubble. Florida State has the athletes to compete, but I will support the better basketball team on their home floor in the Wolfpack.

Anticipated Line – N.C. State by 1 to 3 points

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean N.C. State

 

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 31-39-2 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 18-18 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 59-47-2 ATS

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