VPID Line Moves and Free Picks for Feb. 21st

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For line moves, we are going deep into college basketball today with four games.  Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (102-85-3 run) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here Friday

CBB – (705) GEORGIA at (706) SOUTH CAROLINA  6:30 ET  SECN

It appears beating Auburn means more than beating Tennessee in the SEC. At least that is the conclusion one can make about this matchup. South Carolina upset SEC leader Auburn last Saturday and ended a six-game losing streak, which included a setback to the Volunteers in the game prior. Georgia fell to the Tigers on Feb.10th and has since won its next two contests, the last over the Vols. When using these comparisons and having the Gamecocks rise from -2 to -4, one can understand what I mean. Personally, I would pass on this game but I rather take the Bulldogs at 19-6 ATS on the road versus winning teams than South Carolina.

Betting Trend – 87% backing South Carolina

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Georgia

CBB – (709) VCU at (710) MASSACHUSETTS  7:00 ET  Eleven Sports

VCU is not exactly on a roll, losers of four of their five SU & ATS. But the Rams are in better shape than UMass, who is on 1-8 downer (3-6 ATS). VCU has been moved from a Pick to -2.5 over the Minutemen. Again, not a game I am high on, but I will support VCU because they have more talent and if they play to that level, they will win and cover.

Betting Trend – 94% backing VCU

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean VCU

CBB – (723) DUQUESNE at (724) ST. BONAVENTURE  9:00 ET  Stadium

A very intriguing line move on St. Bonnie’s, who last Friday handed Rhode Island their first loss A-10 loss of the season. The Bonnie’s have slid from -13 to -10.5 home fave over a slightly above average Duquesne squad. Are those betting basketball assuming St. Bonaventure might be a little flat? Or are they not paying attention to the home team is listed on – First 4 Out – still by most bracket-heads and needs to impress the committee? Though the Dukes have lost four in a row, I have enough numbers to give them a shot to cover, even at a lower price.

Betting Trend – 81% backing Duquesne

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Duquesne

CBB – (753) LOUISVILLE at (754) DUKE  9:00 ET  ESPN

For half this season, Duke was really struggling on the defensive end of the floor. Quietly, the Blue Devils have improved and have held ACC teams to 40.1 percent shooting. When taking that into consideration and the fact Louisville is holding teams to 69.9 PPG, this ACC total has crumbled from 157.5 to 154. I actually think this the adjusted number is more accurate and considering Duke is an 11-point favorite, I’ll lean with the OVER with an 83-72 final score.

Betting Trend – 95% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Duke

 

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 31-39-2 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 14-18 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 55-47-2 ATS

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