VPID Line Moves and Free Picks for Feb. 20


We are buzzing through February and today have a multiple line moves in college basketball along with a large drop in the NHL. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (101-82-3 run) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here tomorrow.

CBB – (501) BOSTON COLLEGE at (502) N.C. STATE  7:00 ET  ESPN3

N.C. State is battling for an NCAA berth and still has work to do. In spite of this, hoops bettors did not like the Wolfpack at -8 over Boston College at home and have driven them down to -5. This makes sense because despite the fact N.C. State is averaging 81 PPG, in their past half dozen contests they have conceded 80.6 PPG. I will lean on the +5 with the Eagles at the moment, but truthfully wait and see if the number goes back the other way for greater value.

 Betting Trend – 71% backing Boston College

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Boston College

CBB – (503) WEST VIRGINIA at (504) BAYLOR  7:00 ET ESPN2 (side and total)

Though Baylor has won five straight, is on a 6-0 ATS run and they are in Waco, the Bears have been flipped from -1 to +1 underdogs versus West Virginia. Coach Scott Drew of Baylor knows all he has to do is keep the game close because the Mountaineers have a propensity for blowing games with leads this season, failing to execute late in contests. Along with this change, the total has also sunk from 143 to 141. I like the identity the Bears have established on both sides of the floor and I will call for them to win and cover, even the spread goes back to the original point and realize they are 8-2 UNDER after one or more victories.

Betting Trend – 64% backing Baylor and 55% on Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Baylor covers and Under

CBB – (533) KENTUCKY at (534) ARKANSAS  9:00 ET  ESPN

With Auburn and Tennessee stumbling a bit the past couple weeks, at this very moment, one could argue Arkansas is playing the best basketball in the SEC. The Razorbacks are on a 4-0 SU and ATS burst and are playing fantastic defense. The Hogs have held these recent opponents to under 35 percent shooting and 64.5 PPG. For Kentucky to stay with Arkansas, they must dominate the glass like they did against Alabama last Saturday, which ended their four-game losing streak. The Razorbacks have crept up from -4 to -5.5 and are the more confident team at this point, especially in home/road scenario and squeak out a cover.

Betting Trend – 71% backing Arkansas

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Arkansas

NHL – (53) FLORIDA at (54) TORONTO  7:05 ET FSFL, RSNO

Both these teams have been surging with Florida on a 7-2 SU move and Toronto living up to preseason hype on a 10-2 SU sprint. The Panthers are trying to fight their way back into wild card contention as they wrap up the road trip in which they are 3-1 and will open important six-game homestand next. The Maple Leafs lead the Metropolitan Division and are in the chase for the best record in the Eastern Conference. The opening release of Toronto at -200 appeared high and that money line has since been taken down to -160. Though Florida is 9-1 on the February road the last two years, they are 5-15 after four straight away contests.

Betting Trend – 93% backing Toronto

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Toronto


Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 31-35-2 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 13-18 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 53-44-2 ATS


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