VPID Line Moves and Free Picks for Feb. 2-4

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For line movies this weekend we have NBA and college basketball to talk about along with, of course, the Super Bowl. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (84-71-3 run) to see what we are thinking this week. See you back here next week.

NBA – (815) NEW ORLEANS at (816) OKLAHOMA CITY  9:05 ET  FSNO, FSOK (side and total)

The side and total of this NBA contest are on the move and it hard to fathom that newly acquired Nikola Mirotic would have such an impact. New Orleans new forward did not change any spreads in Chicago, yet the Pelicans have slipped from +6.5 to +5. While Mirotic is a good scorer, he would not raise a total three points to 223. Both teams come in having lost two times and possibly the Thunder being without defensive stopper Andre Roberson is causing bettors to think differently about this game. These are two teams having to adjust on the run with key personnel losses. I’ll agree with the OVER, with two clubs playing loose and back OKC being back at home with lower number

Betting Trend – 75% backing Oklahoma City and 66% on Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Oklahoma City and Over

NBA – (817) GOLDEN STATE at (818) SACRAMENTO  10:35 ET  ESPN

The only way Sacramento gets on TV is playing somebody that others want to watch, like Golden State. The Warriors are coming off a 30-point loss at Utah, which their coach Steve Kerr described as a “pathetic effort” and called it “disgusting.” With the Kings 29th in field goal percentage defense and Golden State finishing 26th in January in the NBA’s defensive metrics, the total climbed from 221 to 223. However, Sac-Town is last in scoring and when Kerr gets angry, it’s usually the Warriors defense that improves.

Betting Trend – 66 % backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under

CBB – Saturday (543) TEXAS TECH at (544) TCU  2:00 ET  ESPNU

After a great start, TCU has been sliding and is 4-5 in the Big 12. The Horned Frogs have to be desperate and come up with a way to beat a Texas Tech club I really like. I think they will.

Anticipated Line – TCU by -1 to -3 points

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean TCU (at these numbers)

CBB – Saturday (683) USC at (684) UCLA  6:00 ET  ESPN2

Big rivalry game and it will come down to which stars play the best. I think this USC squad is finally mature enough and their four upperclassmen put together the right effort and win in Cross-Town classic.

Anticipated Line – UCLA  Pick to -2 points

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean USC

CBB – Saturday  (691) ARIZONA at (692) WASHINGTON  10:30 ET  PAC-12N

The Wildcats are not always eye-pleasing to watch, but they continue to find ways to win. With their size and improving guard play, they will find a way to win and cover against plucky Washington bunch.

Anticipated Line – Arizona by -2 to -4 points

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Arizona

CBB – Saturday (509) HOUSTON at (510) CLEVELAND  8:35 ET  ABC

Honestly, how in the world do you trust the Cleveland Cavaliers with your money, anywhere? I will not!

Anticipated Line – Houston by -1 or -2

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Houston

CBB – Sunday  (817) SETON HALL at (818) VILLANOVA  12:00 ET FOX

Villanova is not only the No.1 team, but they have arguably the best offense in the country. The Wildcats defense is a concern but Seton Hall is allowing almost 80 points per game on the road. Nova covers at -13 or less.

Anticipated Line – Villanova by -13 to -15 points

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Villanova

NFL – (101) PHILADELPHIA at (102) NEW ENGLAND 6:30 ET  NBC

Once Philadelphia completed mopping up Minnesota, sportsbooks across the world released New England as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 48.

Last year we had a large amount of money bet on Tom Brady and the Patriots early, but not this year. The action at sportsbooks was relatively even to start, but then Eagles money started flying on both side action and on money lines and by Jan. 26th, Philly fell to a +4.5 point underdog at most wagering outlets.

As we head towards the Super Bowl, word among most sports betting analysts is there will be a great deal more money coming on New England, which is starting to happen with Philly nearly even on bets placed after being at 60 percent on Monday.

In more recent times, we have seen five Super Bowls fall into a 3.5 to 6-point range on the closing number. That was not always that case as we went 16 straight games where the spread was never in that range. It started with Mike Ditka’s Chicago Bears and ended when Tom Brady upset the St. Louis Rams for his first Super Bowl. (New England was in both those contests)

On the surface, the Patriots favored in this range is not good for their backers, as those at this price-range have lost three in a row and are 1-4 SU and ATS. Nonetheless, this is New England we are talking about and they have cover 13 straight when favored by a touchdown or less.

Philadelphia is 4-2 SU and ATS as an underdog this season and the SU winner is 6-0 both ways.

When looking at the money line, it is about what you would expect, which is more bets placed on the Eagles. Because underdogs have won eight of the past 10 Super Bowls, football bettors consider this a low-risk wager, especially with the current +170 to +175 money line on Philadelphia.

The total of 48 has not budged and does not figure to move hardly at all. Five of the past seven Big Games have been Over’s but, Philly closed the season 6-3 Under and the Pats are 5-2 Under. Still, keep in mind, the past five Super Bowl totals of 45 to 49.5 are 5-0 Over.

Here are a couple more fast facts. Since 1984, when two top seeds collide the SU winner is 8-0 ATS and six times the NFC has been the winner. The SU winner of the Super Bowl is 43-6-2 ATS.

Betting Trend – 51% backing Philadelphia

Doug’s VPID Take – Philadelphia covers

 

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 25-28-1 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 7-10 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 40-30-1 ATS

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